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  • Holy Cow! Lego 70810 MetalBeard's Sea Cow is Up 40% in Just 2 Months


    No quiet "moo moo" noises being heard regarding the 70810 MetalBeard's Sea Cow set.  It's quite impressive when any set increases over 40% from MSRP ($249.99) within only 2 months of "availability" *.  

    Currently, MISB prices are $350 on average (bricklink, amazon, ebay, brickpicker)
    * note: availability varied by region and retailer.

    metalbeard.jpg.d787d797f6adc382773f95314

     

    While most Lego collectors and investments were buying sets such as The Tumbler, Death Star, Pet Shop and UCS X-wing in the closing months of 2015, 70810 was quietly going in and out of stock before disappearing.   Not everyone was ignoring this set or quite by surprise of it's recent performance.  Check-out the forum topic for this set (link below).

     

    So now that it's "retired", why the 40% jump in value in 2 months?  "Supply vs. Demand" in my opinion.

    • It appears Lego didn't produce as many 70810s as other Exclusive sets based on reported box tape seal codes.
    • Maybe the set lost it's initial appeal.  The Lego Movie debuted 2 years ago. Many of its features become available in cheaper sets such as 70816 Benny's Spaceship, Spaceship, SPACESHIP! and Emmit's 70818 Double-Decker Couch.  There was also a larger version of Metalbeard available (70807 The Movie MetalBeard's Duel)
    • The $250 cost was deemed too expensive.

    We may never know why this set was ignored by many at retail.   One thing was certain, the majority of online 70810 reviews were  positive. 

    Regarding the long-term aspects, only time will tell if demand continues to make this set rapidly appreciate.  The upcoming Lego The Movie sequel will most help as well as if Metalbeard appears in other Lego movies (Ninjago, Batman, etc...).

     

    For more information about this set, please visit the following brickpicker.com page and the original Designer Video.

    http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=70810-1

     

     

     

     

    Edited by jaisonline

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    Interesting.   I have one, but only one (still sealed).   The LEGO Movie set I bought more than a few of was Benny's Spaceship because not only did I get them for 40% off MSRP, I suspect it'll be featured in the sequel.   The rest of the theme I only have about one of each with very few exceptions.

     

    I also only have one Tumbler, but more than a few R5.   I hope I put the eggs in the right basket.  We shall see.   :)   If the classic X-Wing shows up again in Rogue One (and I suspect it will), then these could become highly sought after.

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    Tumbler is already approaching 40% as well (ebay sales showing $275-287).  I think 30-40% is a pretty standard bump after retirement right now. ToO, EEE and Red5 are all in that range, though they have been stuck there for awhile.  Same for Horizon Express, and its been there for about a year.  I think where this sits after 6 months will be much more interesting.  I did not go deep on these but I certainly picked up a few, and expect decent returns in the long run.

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    In Europe there were no more than 2 sold in the new year on ebay overall - for 300 or so. A rather unholy cow... Really glad I didnt buy a single one of these

    Edited by rfish

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    51 minutes ago, jay4e said:

    Tumbler is already approaching 40% as well (ebay sales showing $275-287).  I think 30-40% is a pretty standard bump after retirement right now.

    very true about the Tumbler.  i might create another blg about that next month along with 6 or 12 month check-points.  i agree these are more important benchmarks.

    i wish the standard 1-2 month bump was 30-40%.

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    12 minutes ago, jay4e said:

    Tumbler is already approaching 40% as well (ebay sales showing $275-287).  I think 30-40% is a pretty standard bump after retirement right now. ToO, EEE and Red5 are all in that range, though they have been stuck there for awhile.  Same for Horizon Express, and its been there for about a year.  I think where this sits after 6 months will be much more interesting.  I did not go deep on these but I certainly picked up a few, and expect decent returns in the long run.

    It is. 30-40% covers your fees, shipping, materials, etc if you bought at retail. I'm sure it's no accident that this is the typical early bump amount.

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    5 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

    very true about the Tumbler.  i might create another blg about that next month along with 6 or 12 month check-points.  i agree these are more important benchmarks.

    i wish the standard 1-2 month bump was 30-40%. it use to be that way for many exclusive sets pre-2013.

    One thing that should be added is that the majority of retired sets, that do not get heavily discounted, seem to get a 40% bump to the current selling prices after being unavailable at retail.  This is not limited to exclusive sets and a 40% bump in the Sea Cow is expected and in line with other exclusives and non-exclusives and is not an accurate predictor of future success.

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    34 minutes ago, rfish said:

    In Europe there were no more than 2 sold in the new year on ebay overall - for 300 or so. A rather unholy cow... Really glad I didnt buy a single one of these

    Where are you getting your figures from? Between 25th of December to now, ten have sold on eBay uk alone. Seven more on eBay France too, so that's seventeen in only two countries.

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    For Canadians, HOLY COW, Sea Cow up 150% from last buy price. $209.98 + second one half price. Avg cost of $180CAD, that would be the following:
    180.00 CAD     =     125.510 USD

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    There are only 34 listings on ebay. 9 sold on Jan 11th. The last three all went $350, $375, $398. Rarity is going to help this quite a bit. Big thanks to the pessimists that scared everyone off this one. :victory:

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    45 minutes ago, rfish said:

    In Europe there were no more than 2 sold in the new year on ebay overall - for 300 or so. A rather unholy cow... Really glad I didnt buy a single one of these

    Slow seller (2/M on BL). Low stock (140ish). 

    Initial spike = speculative

    Could go either way.

    Good to see people want to hedge their bets and buy premium.

    I wonder what the spike on a PS will be... 'if' it retired

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    2 hours ago, Pjking said:

    Where are you getting your figures from? Between 25th of December to now, ten have sold on eBay uk alone. Seven more on eBay France too, so that's seventeen in only two countries.

    Sorry, I was referring to Ebay Germany, not Europe. In Germany there were only two sold in 2016 - a third one was sold just some minutes ago. So, not much love for the cow in Deutschland.

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    up to 300% for me... purchased it 30% off and 2nd half price of that remaining 70%. costed me 380$ for two of them.. galvatron just sold 1 for 600$ on ebay

    always knew it would be a winner

    Edited by TargetZero

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    5 hours ago, longshot said:

    Right now you'd make about $35 on ea set if you sold it for $350 with a buy in of $250 plus tax. 15% goes right to shipping/ebay fees/ PP fees....... Now once it hit $500 then we are looking at some real money.

    Sell it on Brick Classifieds, puts at least $35 back in your pocket instantly. Get people to look at your listings there.  Money in the bank.

    1 hour ago, TargetZero said:

    galvatron just sold 1 for 600$ on ebay

    Why would anyone pay $600 when you can get one for $350? (is this in Canada?)

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    15 minutes ago, Jeff Mack said:

    Sell it on Brick Classifieds, puts at least $35 back in your pocket instantly. Get people to look at your listings there.  Money in the bank.

    Why would anyone pay $600 when you can get one for $350? (is this in Canada?)

    $350 USD is like $800 Canadian.  :mda:

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    Interesting that folks are dissing DS and red 5. There will be new star wars movies every year for next 4 years and likely more. This will bring in many new buyers of red 5 and DS into the future. 

    How many lego movies will be released and how many people watch lego movie as compared to star wars? How many kids who watched lego movie will want to buy a seacow down several years later?

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    25 minutes ago, chipbee said:

    Interesting that folks are dissing DS and red 5. There will be new star wars movies every year for next 4 years and likely more. This will bring in many new buyers of red 5 and DS into the future. 

    How many lego movies will be released and how many people watch lego movie as compared to star wars? How many kids who watched lego movie will want to buy a seacow down several years later?

    Because the chances of another UCS X-Wing being produced in the next years is very high and another DS playset type UCS model is very possible. By comparison another large SeaCow set coming out ever again is next to nil.

    Personally I'm using my UCS funds on subjects NOT Star Wars right now. R2-D2 is the last set I would have gone bigger on. The only exception I would make for this personal rule is the next UCS MF.... we just KNOW its coming!

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    57 minutes ago, Jeff Mack said:

    Sell it on Brick Classifieds, puts at least $35 back in your pocket instantly. Get people to look at your listings there.  Money in the bank.

    Why would anyone pay $600 when you can get one for $350? (is this in Canada?)

    yes 600 CDN on ebay http://www.ebay.ca/itm/Lego-70810-Big-Ship-from-Lego-Movie-MetalBeards-Sea-Cow-Light-Damaged-Box-/131676539722?hash=item1ea8888b4a:g:AFEAAOSw5IJWb4fA

    Just realized how AGAIN, our money have lowered, 425 US

    16 minutes ago, lobo1969 said:

    Because the chances of another UCS X-Wing being produced in the next years is very high and another DS playset type UCS model is very possible. By comparison another large SeaCow set coming out ever again is next to nil.

    Personally I'm using my UCS funds on subjects NOT Star Wars right now. R2-D2 is the last set I would have gone bigger on. The only exception I would make for this personal rule is the next UCS MF.... we just KNOW its coming!

    well never see a UCS x-wing in years

    Edited by TargetZero

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    9 minutes ago, TargetZero said:

    yes 600 CDN on ebay http://www.ebay.ca/itm/Lego-70810-Big-Ship-from-Lego-Movie-MetalBeards-Sea-Cow-Light-Damaged-Box-/131676539722?hash=item1ea8888b4a:g:AFEAAOSw5IJWb4fA

    Just realized how AGAIN, our money have lowered, 425 US

    well never see a UCS x-wing in years

    Never say never. Of all the subjects that LEGO will re-do over and over its another X-Wing. I can even see the R5 being repackaged a la Winter Toy shop after the Rogue One movie comes out.

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    8 minutes ago, lobo1969 said:

    Never say never. Of all the subjects that LEGO will re-do over and over its another X-Wing. I can even see the R5 being repackaged a la Winter Toy shop after the Rogue One movie comes out.

    Exactly.  There's already 2 different versions from The Force Awakens that will be in lego form, so whose to say they won't make a UCS form of them, or do like you said.  One of Poe's X-wings are primed for a UCS version, and Lego would be foolish not to do it, since Poe's X-wing is one of the top sellers right now, and is constantly out of stock.

    I'm definitely more cautious about buying SW themes as investments than ever before. We are in new territory with these movies, as we could very much have 10 films over the next 10 years, and NOTHING in the star wars universe will be safe from a rehash or remake.

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    Meh.  Sea Cow has a few sales around $350.  This isn't even the best performing 2015 EOL set.  Fallingwater is easily a $200+ set now (basically double MSRP), 42006 is also double MSRP at this stage (and was within a month of EOL), and the Maersk EEE is now at $275 (83% bump).  Heck, even some currently available but hard to find sets are going at 70% above MSRP, specifically, the Speed Champions LaFerrari and McClaren.  Thrilled that Sea Cow is following the usual pattern for exclusives we saw a year ago, but its far from alone in performing that way as a 2015 EOL set.

    Edited by diablo2112
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    54 minutes ago, lobo1969 said:

    Because the chances of another UCS X-Wing being produced in the next years is very high and another DS playset type UCS model is very possible. By comparison another large SeaCow set coming out ever again is next to nil.

    Personally I'm using my UCS funds on subjects NOT Star Wars right now. R2-D2 is the last set I would have gone bigger on. The only exception I would make for this personal rule is the next UCS MF.... we just KNOW its coming!

    By next years you mean within 12 months, 2 years or 10 years? There has only been 2 ucs x wings for past 15 years. Red 5 will easily double in price before next ucs version pops up, and even then, the new x wing will be episode 7 version. 

    I am going to stay far far away from new MF UCS. Every mother, son and their dog know about the superb value of 10179. How many people will be buying a couple of new ucs MF for investment?

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    4 hours ago, Pjking said:

    Where are you getting your figures from? Between 25th of December to now, ten have sold on eBay uk alone. Seven more on eBay France too, so that's seventeen in only two countries.

    I see only 5 sold in ebay.uk since Dec 25th. Just 1 on ebay.fr.

    I see around 47 R5 sold  in the same period across the EU.

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    8 minutes ago, chipbee said:

    By next years you mean within 12 months, 2 years or 10 years? There has only been 2 ucs x wings for past 15 years. Red 5 will easily double in price before next ucs version pops up, and even then, the new x wing will be episode 7 version. 

    I am going to stay far far away from new MF UCS. Every mother, son and their dog know about the superb value of 10179. How many people will be buying a couple of new ucs MF for investment?

    all depends of many factor it can do very well.

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