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  • Holy Cow! Lego 70810 MetalBeard's Sea Cow is Up 40% in Just 2 Months


    No quiet "moo moo" noises being heard regarding the 70810 MetalBeard's Sea Cow set.  It's quite impressive when any set increases over 40% from MSRP ($249.99) within only 2 months of "availability" *.  

    Currently, MISB prices are $350 on average (bricklink, amazon, ebay, brickpicker)
    * note: availability varied by region and retailer.

    metalbeard.jpg.d787d797f6adc382773f95314

     

    While most Lego collectors and investments were buying sets such as The Tumbler, Death Star, Pet Shop and UCS X-wing in the closing months of 2015, 70810 was quietly going in and out of stock before disappearing.   Not everyone was ignoring this set or quite by surprise of it's recent performance.  Check-out the forum topic for this set (link below).

     

    So now that it's "retired", why the 40% jump in value in 2 months?  "Supply vs. Demand" in my opinion.

    • It appears Lego didn't produce as many 70810s as other Exclusive sets based on reported box tape seal codes.
    • Maybe the set lost it's initial appeal.  The Lego Movie debuted 2 years ago. Many of its features become available in cheaper sets such as 70816 Benny's Spaceship, Spaceship, SPACESHIP! and Emmit's 70818 Double-Decker Couch.  There was also a larger version of Metalbeard available (70807 The Movie MetalBeard's Duel)
    • The $250 cost was deemed too expensive.

    We may never know why this set was ignored by many at retail.   One thing was certain, the majority of online 70810 reviews were  positive. 

    Regarding the long-term aspects, only time will tell if demand continues to make this set rapidly appreciate.  The upcoming Lego The Movie sequel will most help as well as if Metalbeard appears in other Lego movies (Ninjago, Batman, etc...).

     

    For more information about this set, please visit the following brickpicker.com page and the original Designer Video.

    http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=70810-1

     

     

     

     

    Edited by jaisonline

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    The Sea Cow was in Star Wars TFA...?

    How do you think Luke gets around Ahch-To?

    Why do I feel like we might be the only two that get that joke?

    Ah, who am I kidding. There are too many nerds here.

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    19 minutes ago, Alpinemaps said:

    Why do I feel like we might be the only two that get that joke?

    Ah, who am I kidding. There are too many nerds here.

    because we are nerds who would also exile ourselves on an island that's accessible only by using 70810 or 10179

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    8 minutes ago, justapilgrim said:

    This will.be one set i sell too early

    keep it.

    Just saw some selling up to 425US (thats 600$ here, and i have paid 180$ for it) but still waiting, couple of years mostly will be worth gold by then, this sets, and now the tumblers, are gold. The short live are the main raison, but not the only one.

    70810 was underestimated, but it's an awsome set, it's huge compare to other pirate ship, i've had many of these and 70810 is very impressive. Different style, unique.

    but sure was underestimated by the hord. Well see, but i think it will perform very very very well

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    59 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

    because we are nerds who would also exile ourselves on an island that's accessible only by using 70810 or 10179

    I want to go there. 

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    I don't get how this was missed unless.......

    Perhaps serious collectors ignored it in favor other models. The Lego Movie itself appealed to kids and families, most of which probably don't spend that much on Lego sets because I constantly hear them complain about how expensive they are. This model would not have been in their sights at all. But for me, as a collector, I could tell this would be a good one just based on what it was.....a really big steampunk pirate ship.

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    57 minutes ago, steveviscious89 said:

    I don't get how this was missed unless.......

    Perhaps serious collectors ignored it in favor other models. The Lego Movie itself appealed to kids and families, most of which probably don't spend that much on Lego sets because I constantly hear them complain about how expensive they are. This model would not have been in their sights at all. But for me, as a collector, I could tell this would be a good one just based on what it was.....a really big steampunk pirate ship.

    Don't underestimate that steampunk crowd.... in fact the day I put my Seacows up on ebay I'll be sure to included 'steampunk' in the item title....

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    11 hours ago, tractorboy said:

    It should probably be noted that both R5 and Tumbler are outselling Sea Cow on ebay EU by around 5 to 1 since Jan 1st.

    I'm glad to see Sea Cow off to a good start, though I didn't buy any. I'm quite happy to have my money in R5 and Tumblers instead. The demand will stay high for those sets in the coming months and years.

    what is R5?

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    6 minutes ago, cambridge02138 said:

    10240 Star Wars Red Five X-Wing

    oh.  right.  That set is amazing.  I am fairly new to the investing part of legos.  You can never have enough of sets on hand.  When i started..it was 1 to build the other to keep for a rainy day.  it quickly turned into none being built...and 10 boxed/sealed sets of each one I have; vacuum sealed with a moisture pouch inside it.   :)   

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    9 hours ago, tractorboy said:

    I see only 5 sold in ebay.uk since Dec 25th. Just 1 on ebay.fr.

    I see around 47 R5 sold  in the same period across the EU.

    http://www.ebay.co.uk/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=lego+sea+cow&_in_kw=1&_ex_kw=&_sacat=0&LH_Sold=1&_udlo=&_udhi=&_samilow=&_samihi=&_sadis=15&_stpos=&_sargn=-1%26saslc%3D1&_salic=3&_sop=12&_dmd=1&_ipg=50&LH_Complete=1  actually 11 not 10.  The price increase in uk also more like 50-60%.  R5 is probably hoarded at 20-1 the sea cow too 

    http://www.ebay.fr/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=lego+sea+cow&_in_kw=1&_ex_kw=&_sacat=0&LH_Sold=1&_udlo=&_udhi=&_samilow=&_samihi=&_sadis=15&_stpos=&_sargn=-1%26saslc%3D1&_salic=71&_sop=12&_dmd=1&_ipg=50&LH_Complete=1

    i just noticed three of the fr sales are the same as the uk sales, so new totals are 11uk + 4fr since 25th dec.

    Edited by Pjking

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    You probaby want to select only new items and either EU only or worldwide in the filter as default misses certain elements out.

    http://www.ebay.fr/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_sacat=0&LH_Sold=1&_udlo&_udhi&_samilow&_samihi&_sop=12&_dmd=1&_ipg=50&LH_Complete=1&rmvSB=true&_nkw=lego%20sea%20cow&LH_PrefLoc=3&rt=nc&LH_ItemCondition=3&_trksid=p2045573.m1684

    Now we can see that real sales by Europe sellers in Euros or GBP are much reduced (less than 1 per day) and the average price is  15%-20% euros up on RRP so after commissions there is no net profit.

    Only people who bought low or like working for nothing are selling now - in 6-12 months we will see how hoarded this set really is when it is able to turn more people a profit.

    I filter out non € sales as they falsify data because there is a foreign exchange rate applied. If we do a worldwide search, we can see that sales are much higher due to more US transactions but those figures don´t interest me either as it´s not my market.

     

    Edited by valenciaeric

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    29 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

    You probaby want to select only new items and either EU only or worldwide in the filter as default misses certain elements out.

    http://www.ebay.fr/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_sacat=0&LH_Sold=1&_udlo&_udhi&_samilow&_samihi&_sop=12&_dmd=1&_ipg=50&LH_Complete=1&rmvSB=true&_nkw=lego%20sea%20cow&LH_PrefLoc=3&rt=nc&LH_ItemCondition=3&_trksid=p2045573.m1684

    Now we can see that real sales by Europe sellers in Euros or GBP are much reduced (less than 1 per day) and the average price is  15%-20% euros up on RRP so after commissions there is no net profit.

    Only people who bought low or like working for nothing are selling now - in 6-12 months we will see how hoarded this set really is when it is able to turn more people a profit.

    I filter out non € sales as they falsify data because there is a foreign exchange rate applied. If we do a worldwide search, we can see that sales are much higher due to more US transactions but those figures don´t interest me either as it´s not my market.

     

    So uk sellers are not eu sellers? How do you conclude that? On eBay uk these things typically sell for 260 pounds plus postage to 290 plus postage.  Uk rap was 169.99, so that's typically a 50-70% increase. Yes sales are slow, but this set doesn't appear to be hoarded in anyway at all

    Edited by Pjking

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    Where did I say they weren´t? I filter out non Euro currency sales because I work in Euros. If I included sales in GBP, USD or whatever else, then I would have to take into account a daily currency exchange rate applied by ebay which distorts real values.

    I agree with you that the strong sales are coming from non Eurozone sellers - for now. Logical in part as it retired sooner in the US and the theme seems a little less toxic there.

    Until this set becomes impossible to find in retialers (and we are some way from that here), it won´t appreciate as fast here.

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    6 hours ago, macpro76 said:

    I am fairly new to the investing part of legos.  You can never have enough of sets on hand. 

    One must either be unmarried or have a very understanding wife to type such a comment :)

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    44 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

    One must either be unmarried or have a very understanding wife to type such a comment :)

    or be the wife ;)

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