Jump to content
  • Sign in to follow this  

    Will Mickey Mouse Save LEGO STAR WARS Investing?


    In a time, not so long ago, in a place, not so far away, the STAR WARS theme ruled the LEGO investment world. Iconic LEGO sets like the 10179 Millennium Falcon, 7191 X-Wing Fighter and 10030 Star Destroyer yielded fantastic returns on investment. Almost every STAR WARS set had better annual returns than the standard LEGO set and were universally thought of by LEGO collectors and investors as “can't lose” investments. But over the last several months, the LEGO STAR WARS theme has slowly started to decline in overall CAGR, dropping below the average LEGO Theme CAGR. Take a look at the chart below

    Posted Image

    As the reader can see, starting in August of 2012, the combined STAR WARS theme average CAGR dropped below the average CAGR for all LEGO sets and themes combined. In other words, your “run of the mill” LEGO set had a CAGR of around 10.47% in August and the once Gold Standard of LEGO investing, the STAR WARS theme, dropped to 9.9% CAGR and has remained below average ever since. What the Hell is going on you may ask? Well for one, the last major STAR WARS movie, STAR WARS III: Revenge of the Sith, was released all the way back in 2005. That is a long time ago in the world of entertainment and keeping people engaged in a movie franchise is rather difficult nowadays, even an iconic franchise like STAR WARS. With an eight-year hiatus in new STAR WARS ideas to base new LEGO sets off of, LEGO has had to base each year's new STAR WARS sets on retreads or previously done or minor vehicles or characters. Basically, LEGO fans and STAR WARS fans in general have lost interest in the stale franchise and remade LEGO sets. The once leader in LEGO investing, the STAR WARS theme, has turned into a below average investment in the world of LEGO investing.

    But fear not my young Jedi, help is on the way and he wears yellow shoes and red shorts. His name is Mickey Mouse and he might just inject some life into this tired franchise and LEGO theme. Back in October, Disney bought Lucasfilm for $4.05 billion in cash and plans to release STAR WARS: Episode VII in 2015, with many other STAR WARS movies to follow. Knowing Disney and their proclivity to make sequels, you can be assured that the STAR WARS franchise will be reborn and live well into the future. Also, George Lucas will be an advisor on the next three films, so you know the quality and creativity will be there with the new movies. This is just fantastic news for the LEGO investor, especially those like myself who have a collection that is heavily based in STAR WARS sets. With the renewed and continued interest in the STAR WARS theme, many of the older STAR WARS LEGO sets might once again find strong growth, which has stagnated over the past several years. Depending on when the next movie will be based(in STAR WARS time that is...), it is quite possible many of the older STAR WARS ships, like the Millennium Falcon, will have new roles in the new movie. Can you imagine what a 10179 Millennium Falcon will appreciate to if it is in the next movie? I can only imagine.

    So, all in all, the news that Disney will be producing new STAR WARS movies is wonderful to say the least. Not only because STAR WARS fans will get to see new movies, but that the once iconic line of LEGO sets will become iconic and relative once again. With new STAR WARS movies every 2 to 3 years, there will be a plethora of new vehicles and characters to immortalize in ABS plastic bricks every couple of years. No more retreads. Also, with the potential of all the new fans being introduced to the STAR WARS series, older characters and vehicles will find new fans as well. Some of these fans will undoubtedly be LEGO fans as well, which makes for a nice combination for the continued growth potential of STAR WARS LEGO sets that exist today. What's funny is that the STAR WARS Ultimate Collector's Series is what brought me out of my Dark Ages of LEGO collecting and has made me some nice paper profits over the years. But the recent downturn of the theme has had me recommending some of the other hot LEGO themes of today...Ninjago, Monster Fighters, Friends, CUUSOO...to name a few. Well, I am here today to tell you that the STAR WARS LEGO theme is back. Maybe not today. Maybe not next year. But when Episode VII hits the big screen in 2 years, lookout...the prudent STAR WARS LEGO investor will be one happy Geonosian...

    Sign in to follow this  


    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    What about Star wars : Clone Wars cartoon series??? Its had 5 seasons and still going strong. This is where most of the newer sets in recent history have come from. not to mention other media forms like games : The old republic. Maybe some adults do not watch the cartoons, but I do an enjoy the show and the sets that come from them. My 2 cents

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    I'm sure that has a factor in the continued influx of some new sets and fans, but big screen movies are what drives this theme. STAR WARS, anyway you slice it, is geared towards adult viewers and many have no idea about the cartoon series. The heavy hitters of the theme, the UCS sets, are designed for the older child or adult. Really, if the cartoon had any real positive effect on LEGO sales, the theme would still be above average in returns, but it is slipping more and more every month(maybe the theme would really tank without the cartoon series). The theme needs a shot in the arm and it's my belief the new movies will do that.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    Clone Wars is pretty huge with Star Wars fans (both young & old) & I don't believe that many adults are into Ninjago & yet they seem to be top performers - so cartoons do matter. Lego is overproducing the SW sets nowadays & re-releasing just about every SW set again & again (with no end in site). This has had a negative effect on the prices of the older sets. By the way, this is the change that I had mentioned took place this past spring & while it may only be 1 theme (& yes, the overall data could hide it), SW is still the historical leader. Now, I don't think the world is ending, but when the leader is having issues (regardless of the reason) - it isn't good.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    We can expect sets until 2022. http://aboutus.lego.com/en-us/news-room/2012/february/The-Force-Remains-with-The-LEGO-Group Star Wars needs a break right now. LEGO should kill off the line for a year or two. Before the new film is released, the theme would have a fresh lineup. Too bad that isn't going to happen because of the show on Cartoon Network.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    I think people are giving cartoons too much credit for LEGO theme success. Is there a Friends cartoon? How about a Monster Fighters cartoon? CUUSOO cartoon? STAR WARS sets have always been overproduced, but there was always enough interested parties to buy them up. Even with some kids buying the Old Republic themed sets because of the cartoon, the adult interest in the theme is lacking IMO. The movie can only help draw some much needed new fans into the STAR WARS world.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    I think the sets have become a bit obscure, and the initial retail price is high to start. But mostly investors saw the way that previous sets were jumping in price and overbought this time. When everyone is saying 'buy, buy, buy', it's a pretty good indicator that that ship has already sailed.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    As a Star Wars fan that attends conventions and has spent hundreds on Star Wars lego sets, I do believe that the rerelease of sets a is a major factor, but an even larger issue is the set prices. I understand the licenses play a pivotal role, but lets be honest I could buy 2 Star Wars lego sets for the price of maybe 4 or 5 sets from the other themes and may have more pieces. Nonetheless, as a Star Wars fan I still buy them and cannot wait for future sets!

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    As a huge Star Wars fan, I've been very let down by the recent releases. It seems like there are one or two sets that are awesome, and the rest is just filler. I think that's the reason prices are coming down... not that the demand isn't there, that the sets suck. That, and the sets have been overpriced. The Falcon at $140... not exactly going to fly off the shelves. But, I think that leaves an opportunity for investors to make money on it. Hopefully TLG picks up the quality and selection in the near future.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    Agreed, continually exposure of the SW universe to more and more fans can't help but make the Lego sets more popular. I'll be interested to see if there will remain a "hardcore" group dedicating to the original films and therefore drive up even more demand on the older "classic" sets.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    When LEGO first did Star Wars sets, they were new, fresh and exciting! But now, Star Wars LEGO has become a 'standard' theme we are all used to. The initial thrill is gone as it were. It could be rekindled with a new film, provided it turns out to be good. I really like the Clone Wars tv series, but it certainly does not make me want to go out and buy more Star Wars LEGO. Let us hope the Disney rodent doesn't screw things up. (And I say that with care, okay?)

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    I re-watched all the movies over Christmas. Episodes 3 & 4 still don't run on correctly. One thing I did think when I saw Episode 3 in 2005 was that they need to remake E4, 5 & 6 because the style of movie making has changed in the past 3 decades. So going from E3 to E4 is a bit jarring. It also makes me laugh that the entire death star was only protected by 4 Tie Fighters. Getting back to Lego, I received the latest catalog through the post (that was nice of them I did not realise they would do that - I suspect they are trying to get me to spend money) and it had Jabbas Palace which looked tempting. But the S@H prices seemed a bit steep and this sites' value looked very low. I am not sure how good this would be in the long run.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    Interesting article. I pretty much agree with everything Ed Mack says. Though my 4 year old son introduced me to the old republic 5 minute HD movies, and omg, I was hooked on the old republic lego sets. The cartoons are great yes, but the main 2 reasons star wars lego sets became so popular was it was... star wars + lego. 2 of the things we all loved as kids and it brought me out of my dark ages. I never lost the love of lego, and I certainly never lost the love of star wars, but the 2 combined, was like... POW. I must admit, I am such a die hard fan of lego now, that I prefer to MOC Star Wars models myself, but I am a sucker for all the better and better versions that TLC release as the years go on. I agree, that when SW Ep VII is released, we are going to see a massive increase in the value of SW lego sets. Having said that though, my 4 year old loves Star Wars equally as much as Ninjago. Funny, I've shown him what I grew up with (space), and he says they are the coolest of all the ships, including Star Wars. So, I guess, as far as younger kids are concerned, its simply about the model, not the logo, but with teenagers, i'd say it is geared towards the license branding, or at least you'd think so as they dwindle ever towards their dark ages... lets just hope that TLC have enough older sets that people are never again led to the dark ages again. But certainly, the quality in Town, and if you'll notice, the city sets, and other non licensed sets is really really improving, so much so, that it used to be hard to pickup that city construction set, when you looked at the quality of the star wars build, but now.... well, because of the high quality in the build of many non licensed sets, it certainly makes it attractive for afols to have non SW sets adorning their shelves. I am no exception. Just look at the Emerald Night, the modular town sets, the RC train sets etc etc. It may not just be a matter of SW sets losing their interest, but other lines becoming so much more interesting, that you have to somehow juggle your purchases, or face financial ruin. The other stunning no brainer that TLC has released is the super hero line. My 4 year old just could not stop screaming in excitement when he opened Iron Man's car set, and the Deadpool / wolvy / magneto set. These bad boys took my eye so much that I had to pick up multiples of them for me 2, that I think I spent more on non SW lego last year than any other year, and less on SW, not because I don't love the newer better versions, but because of the qualitiy of the other themes and variety. But as Ed Mack states, I cannot wait for Ep 7, more vehicles, characters etc etc, and hopefully a massive increase in my SW Brickfolio would be nice.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    The low CAGR on the newer Lego Star Wars sets is becaue they are making too many of them. More and more stores have more and more sets. I just bought 250 sets at a local Target today for 70% off. All Star Wars. No matter how bad the CAGR, I think I made a good investment. And Star Wars has a larger fan base now than ever, all because of Star Wars Clone Wars. My 7 year old is into Star Wars because of Clone Wars and not the live action movies. As much as us adult collectors like to believe Lego is making these sets for us, 7 year olds have more of an impact on CAGR than we do. Unfortunately Lego made more Star Wars sets than there are adult or kid fans this time.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    I think there is a bunch of reasons why star wars sets have declined and most have already been mentioned. Price, remakes (which I hate), and lack of movies. I think I will strangle someone if I see another X-wing or a jedi starfighter. Even the new Headhunter ship is pretty much the same as an X-Wing. If lego is running out of ships to produce, how about making some play sets. On the flip side, I do really enjoy the clone wars cartoon. Very well made. The new MHC set from the clone wars looks pretty cool.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    I think the new movies could go either way in terms of the effect they will have on Star Wars Lego set value. A lot of people (myself included) did not enjoy the prequels and so, as of now, half of the movies are loved and treasured and half are despised. If the new Disney-made movies fall short of people's expectations (and the statement that they plan to crank them out as fast as possible doesn't give me the greatest confidence that they won't) then the "good" Original Trilogy Star Wars movies will be further diluted and hurt the reputation of the brand further. Also, a trend in Star Wars Lego sets that has likely hurt the CAGR value is that TLC has clearly wizened to the fact that there are many AFOL collectors who buy every set irregardless of originality or perceived value. This has led to re-releasing sets a ludicrous number of times and to justifying the raising of prices for less interesting sets by including a new and exclusive minifigure. I wish they would focus on making new sets (believe it or not but there are a lot of scenes, locations, and vehicles in the movies that have not received the Lego treatment yet. How is that we don't have Hoth ion cannon and power generator sets yet? Or more substantive Mos Eisley sets? ). Unfortunately, most of the new sets that could be created would be too obscure and wouldn't do as well with their core demographic--children.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    I hope the is true and Star Wars LEGOS go up in value, because most of my collection is SW. I am also greatsly anticipating fresh sets and figs!

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    This will certainly keep the appeal of the Star Wars sets very high and keep bringing new people into the franchise. In the end, this will be good for all of us!

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    I hope Star Wars sets continue to do well considering they also make up almost half of my collection. I find it hard to convince myself to buy a remake of a set I already have unless it is greatly improved from its previous version.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    I think the new movies bring an upset to most of the people so the original series will bring in a lot of popularity. For the show, I have never really watched it, but I wouldn't want to invest in it.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    Today we have to consider who is purchasing the expensive sets. A kid can save and save or get his parents or grandparents to pony up for let's say $100 at Christmas or for a Birthday; but the adult buyer is the one with sufficient cash on hand to purchase given the cost of the sets today. Because Star Wars is roughly 25 to 35 years old as of now; the folks who enjoyed those movies back when are the buyers who are re-discovering the enjoyment of Lego today. The economy is the primary reason that we are not seeing a significant increase in the value of Star Wars sets. As the economy gets better sells of older star war sets will again rise. Just my two cents.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    The Clone Wars TV show is probably what has kept the line going so well for the past few years. The kids love this show and always want all the sets. Think of what Clone Wars related sets will be worth 1-2 decades from now as this generation grows up and wants the sets from their childhood that they never had. As an adult whose life was changed by seeing Stwr Wars at the tender age of 4, I love the Clone Wars show and lego sets only a little bit less than those based on my childhood. They're awesome, particularly all the variou sclone troopers and jedi you can get compared to the previous movies. My son has literally an army of clones and droids to fight each other but always wants more, even if he's already got them.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    While I do not like a child oriented company would make adult movies, I do like the fact that we will get more movies of Star Wars. If those new movies will have the visual effedcts of 3rd Star Wars movie and the heart of the Old trillogy success is a fact.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites



    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
    Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

    Guest
    Add a comment...

    ×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

      Only 75 emoji are allowed.

    ×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

    ×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

    ×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

    Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...