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    Finding the "Magic Number": A Simple Way to Find When a Lego Set Will Stop Growing in Value


    Please read my other article about the "Magic Number". Here is a link: http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/index.php/blog/11/entry-237-the-magic-number-when-the-growth-stops/

    To find when a Lego set will potentially stop growing in value. You can use this system to determine under which category the set falls under. You can use the four variables explained in the other article to determine when a set might hit the magic number. To find what category a set falls under, the set must be graded on a scale of one to ten in each of the categories.

    How old the set is: Use when the set was released as the starting point.

    • 0-6 months
    • 7-12 months
    • 1-2 years
    • 3-5 years
    • 6-8 years
    • 9-10 years
    • 11-15 years
    • 16-20 years
    • 21-30 years
    • 31+ years.

    How desirable the set is: This category is very hard to determine. Use your own opinion on the set to determine this.

    • Very popular
    • Popular
    • Great
    • Good
    • Decent
    • Bad
    • Worse
    • Worst
    • Really bad
    • Undesirable

    How many sets are available to be sold: See how many sets are available to be sold on eBay.

    • 81+
    • 71-80
    • 61-70
    • 51-60
    • 41-50
    • 31-40
    • 21-30
    • 11-20
    • 6-10
    • 0-5

    How many sets were produced: See how long the set was available on the primary market

    • 5+ years
    • 4 years
    • 3 years
    • 2 years
    • 1.5 years
    • 1 year
    • 6-11 months
    • 4-6 months
    • 2-3 months
    • 1 month

    After seeing what category the set falls under for each section, add up the numbers. When you get your final result, see where it is in this scale. The totals will vary from 4-40.

    • 4-10: The set still has growth in the future. The set will stop growing in value in the far future.
    • 11-15: The set has a good amount of growth left for the future. The set will stop growing in value in the distant future.
    • 16-20: The set has a decent amount of growth left in the future. The set will stop growing in value soon in the future.
    • 21-25: The set has some growth left, but not a lot for the future. The set will stop growing in value in the near future.
    • 26-30: The set has a small amount of growth left for the future. The set has a very small chance at recahing the "Magic Number", but it is possible. Other than that, the set is close to reaching the point when the growth will stop.
    • 31-35: The set has a very little amount of growth left for the future. Some sets have reached the "Magic Number" already, but some have not. Other then that, the set is extremely close to reaching the point when growth will stop.
    • 36-40: The set is near or at the "Magic Number". Very little growth will happen beyond this point, but it is still possible.

    I will try this method out on one sets. The first will be the 10179 Millennium Falcon.

    • How old is the set: 4: 3-5 years
    • How desirable is the set: 2: Popular
    • How many sets are available to be sold: 8: 11-20
    • How many sets were produced: 4: 2 years

    After adding all the numbers up, the set has a score of 18. That is about halfway through the scale. This means the set has a decent amount of growth left in the future.

    This method may help in determining when a Lego set will stop growing in value, but it does not always work. There are other factors that cannot be calculated in all of this. For example, a set may be so expensive that no one will pay above a certain amount to get the set, thus limiting the potential growth of the set. Eventhough a set may appear to stop growing in value it still can. Hopefully, this article has helped anyone trying to find when a set will stop growing in value.

    Thanks for reading.
     

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