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    Top 20 LEGO Movers and Shakers: February 2014


    This blog follows on from my previous blogs presenting the top 20 sets in terms of secondary market price growth according to the data we have available here on Brickpicker.  Apologies as I’ve been a bit slack and missed the last data update that was in January and had data up to the 10th of Jan.  As such this update will be based on values as at the end of Feb-14.  This means comparisons in the “Last Rank” column of the tables will be comparing movements from the Nov-13 positions. Again, here are some notes on the scope before I begin:

    • I have not restricted the qualifying sets by size or age or any other dimension
    • Information is based on US prices only
    • Not all sets across all themes are included as I have zero interest in Bionicle/Hero Factory for example so have only gathered data on a few of those sets.  (I just didn’t have the willpower to gather all the data for them really).  Most of the rest are covered though.
    • I tried to look at as many sets as possible, but there is a chance a few may have been missed, if you spot some that should/could be included please let me know
    • The Last Rank column indicates changes in ranking from the last Top 20 Blog (Nov data)

      One Month Growth (change in Market Price from last month) An entirely new set of entrants and that’s not really a surprise given volatility in prices when only looking at a change from 1 month to the next and that none of the movers from Nov-13 have popped up again here.  Interestingly the newly released 70803 Cloud Cuckoo Palace from the LEGO Movie has made the list after obvious short term supply issues and high consumer demand. It will be interesting to see if any of these sets can maintain some of this growth longer term.  Which leads us nicely onto our next time period:   Six Month Growth (change in Market Price from August 2013 ) Another list dominated by new entrants.  Plenty of recently retired sets enjoying that initial post EOL price bump.  We also get the Advent Calendar’s in a trio in the middle, obviously enjoying a Christmas spike.   One Year Growth (change in Market Price from February 2013) Black Phantom, Butterfly Beauty Shop, and Jawblade take the top spots after maintaining previous growth rates.  There are also quite a few of the much talked about Super Heroes sets that have recently retired, all translating that hype into very good growth performance.  Plenty of other great sets on this list that you’d have done well to buy at market price one year ago.   Two Year Growth (change in Market Price from February 2012) Now into the two year time frame we begin to remove some of the short term fluctuations that can occur with some of the narrower time periods. 21001 John Hancock Center has plateaued a little in recent months and has slipped back 3 spots from the top handing the crown to Fire Lord. We can now start to see some of the performers in the shorter time periods that were presented in previous articles begin to push their way through onto the 2 year growth table, like the Rocka XL, Butterfly Beauty Shop, and Black Phantom.   Retail Growth (change in Market Price from Retail MSRP) Now for the full measure of growth from the retail value of the set.  Obviously a set with a $0 listed retail price like all the promo giveaways etc are excluded as we can’t divide by zero, so that has weeded out a few of the small polybags or very very old sets for which we have no retail data.  But the list is still dominated by cheap sets that have increased by large multiples. The 1626 Angel takes top spot with a crazy 20,477% growth over retail thanks to 1 recent sale of $250 and another 2 years ago of $280 all from a set that cost $1.30 when released back in 1989. Perhaps the first “real” contender is 10190 Market Street, such an impressive result for a set in just 6 years.  Much better than another set from the same year that people often point to as the pinnacle of Lego investing…  The Batman set that slips in at number 20 becomes the first Super Heroes set to do so, and perhaps shows the way for future super hero related sets?   Conclusions These top 20 tables lists all the absolute best investment decisions you could have made if you had perfect future knowledge.  The amount of under the radar sets and “sleeper” hits have been a big wake up call for me.  We sometimes become a little circular in discussing the popular sets for investing (Modulars, UCS, etc) and lose sight of the fact that many of the best investments to be had right now are probably some of the least discussed sets.  It does mean there are plenty more topics ripe for discussion on the forums and in blogs.    

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    Wow thanks for the info. is there a digit missing from the Six Month Growth (change in Market Price from August 2013)? some of the market values are less than retail.

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    I think some of the data may have imported incorrectly, some sets are showing a higher retail price than market value while having a very high growth % 6868 for instance shows a retail of $49.99 and a market price of $37.40 and a 6 month growth of 155%. Also set 1626 has a listed value of $267.50 but I could only find sold listings in the $20.00 neighborhood.

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    Thanks for spotting that. The 6mth table I have accidentally taked Used market price rather than New. The other columns and ranks are unaffected. Here is an updated table http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/uploads/imgs/bp_1395359393__top_20_feb14_6mth.jpg

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    No worries. If you do see something weird with the data underlying each set then use the "notify us via email" link on the set's page so Jeff can take a look at it.

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    Interesting about the Heavy Duty Helicopter being #1. I pass it all the time. I often think that if the blue bricks were green instead that helo would have a close resemblance to Marine 1.

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    Just a quick question, is the market value column in each of the charts supposed to be the market value of the set as of Feb-14 or as of the bench mark point for the particular chart (Aug 2013, Feb 2013, etc?)

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    It should be the current market price the same as on the set's page which is based on data to the end of Feb 2014

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    Yep, the 6mth table had an error that meant I was picking up the Used market price and not the New. Someone spotted it above and I posted a link to a corrected table.

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    Another good article. I was slightly surprised not to see 10197 FB on any of the tables as it has effectively doubled in price (in the UK) since EOL in December.

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    Looks like another case of the dreaded suffix. Set 4206-1 gets mixed up with set 4206-2. From checking the sets info it seems that from Nov onwards the 4206-1 set has picked up all the 4206-2 set sales. My table then picks up both as it only looks at the set number without suffix for most sets. My humble apologies for the error I throw myself at thy mercy and shalt proceed henceforth to give myself a thorough thrashing. (I'll also let Jeff know of the data cross over)

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    I'm just bitter b/c I have like 6 of the recycling truck that I got half off at the end of 2012/beginning of 2013 and they suck...cant get rid of them,

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