Jump to content
  • Sign in to follow this  

    Is LEGO Minecraft 21102 Becoming a Flop?


    There has been a flurry of activity with this set within the last couple days, and it seems to be causing a lot of LEGO investors to change their feelings toward it. Amazon had around 550 units for sale on January 9, and Toys R Us was offering it online on January 11. Even the official Minecraft site, www.JINX.com, got in on the fun and offered a small number of these for sale the same day.

    With all these recent offerings, the general feeling of this set seems to have shifted to an unusually negative outlook for a lot of investors. This is understandable. We are talking about a set that started out with a stated production run of only 10,000 units. Then, due to the overwhelming and unexpected popularity of Minecraft as a game, another undisclosed number of these sets became available, and then another, and then another…

    It seems to be a recurring theme these days. Just when people are thinking, "Okay, that has got to be it, right?," another batch of them shows up for sale somewhere. A $34.99 set that very recently commanded over $100 on the secondary market is now quickly becoming something a lot of people are rolling their eyes at. The going rate on eBay and Amazon is $60 on a good day, and will likely drop with all the recent quantities offered.

    The exclusive feel of the Minecraft set is starting to feel… not so exclusive. There are so many of them out there that the value seems to be plunging. A lot of people who ordered them recently are already discussing their plans to hopefully flip them quickly and make a small $20 profit if they're lucky.
    Before people get too hung up in this kind of thinking, there are many aspects of the Minecraft set that should be carefully considered before they make the rash decision of dumping their stock. There is no need to feel this negativity toward a set that we were all so excited about only a few short weeks ago. The value of the Minecraft set is still alive and well, and I am here to tell you why and hopefully put your fears to rest.

    Please consider the following:

    Minecraft has indeed been offered for sale far more times than any of us expected. But it sells out in what is probably record timing EVERY time. The Amazon offering on January 9 was gone in under an hour. That is 550+ units in under 60 minutes! On January 11, I was notified the instant the sets became available on the Toys R Us website. Within 15-20 minutes they were gone. Then another forum poster pointed out that they were available on the Minecraft developer site. Within 10 minutes…you guessed it…gone!

    Does this sound like the makings of a set that has limited or waning interest? Absolutely not! Sure, the number of sets in existence keeps going up, and at a frustratingly unpredictable rate, but they disappear as suddenly as they reappear.

    When people invest in a product to hopefully make a profit on it, it comes as no surprise when they feel frustration at the fact that the value of the product is cut in half in a couple weeks' time. It is easy to jump on board with something that is rapidly soaring in value. Naturally, it is equally easy to lose faith in the same product once that value seems to peak, and then rapidly declines.

    So here we are, watching the value of Minecraft Micro World sink faster than the Titanic. But this is one ship that it would be wise to not jump off of just yet. Keep in mind that there are many sets that we have all collected that were readily available on retail shelves everywhere for over two years that became very profitable once they were retired. The operative word in that sentence being EVERYWHERE. Minecraft has certainly not been available everywhere. When it is available, you miss it if you dare to blink. It has pretty much always been available NOWHERE. The market may currently feel flooded with Minecraft sets, but that is only because we are all used to tripling our investment on it almost immediately. We all know that LEGO investing requires patience above all else, but we are not used to having to exercise that kind of patience with Minecraft. If we give it time, this situation will even itself out.

    If you need to recoup your $35 investment right away and ensure a small profit, go ahead and sell. But the smart money says it is time to start treating this set like we would any other LEGO set; get it while you can, sell it for a lot once it's gone. It just means we need to adjust our thinking and accept the fact that Minecraft is not the dynamite short-term investment it once was.

    When compared to your average STAR WARS or Super Heroes set, Minecraft will still ultimately have much more limited production and availability numbers. As the Minecraft game continues to get more and more popular, the demand and interest for its LEGO equivalent will also go up. And when the game fizzles out, you are still left with a LEGO set that was very underproduced by comparison. Either way, this is a set that is going to be talked about for years to come. Until we are seeing 21102 Minecraft Micro World sets on Walmart and Target retail shelves everywhere, we've got nothing to worry about. So sit tight everyone. Hold on to those Minecraft sets for a while. Give them a chance. You can thank me later. :)

    Sign in to follow this  


    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Did Lego state that the production would be limited to 10k sets, or that their initial run would be 10k sets? Outside of promo items like the Lego Store set (for grand openings), I see Lego producing sets to meet whatever demand is out there. So if you see a set that's coming up short now, then flip it quick to the people who will pay a premium to have it now, because you should expect Lego to make more until the price hits retail and they stop selling out within a week. But don't expect it to hold at $60 and go up from there.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    The purpose of the article was to get people to reconsider their short term plans for this set. Would you rather flip it now for a $20 profit, or wait til it retires and likely sell it for $80-$100 again? This set is never going to dip below the retail cost of $34.99. I don't see them making it that much longer with all the buzz about the new CUUSOO Back to the Future Delorean.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    is it just me or is every post on here some how spinning the news to tell the consumer to BUY BUY BUY? Can you imagine if you made money every time you told someone to buy a lego set?

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    If this is minting money for Lego (and it seems to be) then I don't see why they should stop making it. It sells out quick because of the popularity of Minecraft I'm sure. And it was released around the holiday period. It's a new set and assuming it stays in production, how long will people have to wait for it to appreciate beyond the quick $20 you can make for a flip right now?

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    I hope the people who are jumpy will dump their sets and leave the pool. I am a bit on the fence about this post. You are saying people should hold their sets. I say let them dump! We do not have a way to determine how many investors or consumers are buying MC right now. If consumers buy them, the sets are sucked out of our pool and they might not be MISB if they return. It is true in the case when MC is not in stock. People will flood to Amazon and Ebay... I have one MC set and I intend to sit on it for a while now to see what happens with it. @bnb No, it isn't just you.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    I think there are at least 2 problems for long-term investing (please feel free to politely disagree) 1) Many people are buying this set despite having no real idea what Mindcraft is. Heck, I bought 2 of them and still haven't played a single game on any platform. 2) Software / online- based games historically lose the public's interest overtime (there have beens exceptions like GTA). 3-5 years after this set is finally retired, will there still be enough Mindcraft players wanting this set? I'm just not seeing it. Sure, Cuusoo collectors might want this down the road. However, it isn't their 1st release so there goes that angle maybe. If this was a stock, I would unfortunately have to say, "sell".

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    The biggest reason for this set reaching high levels recently is easy - Christmas. This happens every year with whatever sets are really popular with the kids. Once the stores don't have the most popular sets on the shelves, eBay prices jump. Before Christmas this was a $60ish set. Now that Christmas has passed, it's just returning to its normal levels. The set was available for 6 months prior to Christmas and it's funny to see everyone acting like it just came out and it was so hard to get. Sure, it hasn't been on any store shelves (except LEGOLAND and maybe a couple LEGO Stores) so you had to do a little more looking than usual, but it was easy to get at regular price for several months before November. If they continue to slowly release more of these into the wild, the price will continue to fall until the eBay sales are only slightly higher than the regular cost. Regardless, the recent price drop was to be expected after Christmas. I personally don't want to waste my time for $10 or $15 profit (after fees and such) on flipping Minecraft sets, but I'd hardly call being able to immediately flip a set for a 29-43% gain a flop.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    I agree with the x-mas rush... It does have lots to do with the rise in eBay prices. I never played Minecraft and doesn't interest me but I think the video game arena is ripe for lego such as Zelda=)

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    Thanks for the article. I saw that the value of this set had dipped, and I started to get a little worried but after reading this, in my opinion I have nothing to worry about.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    If anybody is keeping track, I just flipped one of these for $60 on eBay. It was listed for less than two hours. I still think these are long term investment winners, but you can make money on them now AND later. :)

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    Buy what you like and love what you buy. When investing is the motive the market value gets artificially inflated. This has happened with sports cards and comic books. I find better deals in the clearance section at Target or Walmart and can make a faster return, though sometimes the sets are not that popular. I bought the minecraft set and at first I was afraid to open it, then I remember that Lego is for play. I remember when the original Millenium Falcon came out - I bought about 4 or 5 at Target for $25 each (they were $100 retail), then sold them for $100-$125. They later sold for around $400 on eBay ( I had already sold mine), but the price has come down since. I still made over 4 times my money.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    I primarily specialize in video game memorabilia. There is no doubt these will gain value in a few years. Only problem is these days the ADD generation can't wait for the value to truly increase. Minecraft isn't going anywhere. It's the ultimate game for kids and just like we grew up with LEGO sets, they are growing up with Minecraft. Trust me. Unless they make these specific sets for the next 10 years, they will be worth plenty.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    Thanks for the article. I would agree that it is not as good as an investment as it was before. Before you know it, Lego will flood the market with them and they will be worth their retail price again. Just my thought.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    Interesting that you should say that, since the LEGO Shop just made these available again, and raised the limit to 5 per family...

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    I think as a quickturn around before Christmas this set was gold. Now that the limit has been raised and more available through Lego I'm hoping the market floods and I can pick one up on discount someday through Lego. I can only imagine this set is going to be as popular so long the game is and popularity shifts to a different genre of game. The hardest thing for me about buying this set is that it personally doesn't appeal to me and it doesn't offer anything very unique in it, IMHO.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    The good old days for this set are over. While Lego had some available for 5 per family in January and they subsequently sold out again, I don't think that's going to happen again for a while. Lego is selling them online again at 2 per family, and today a big shipment went up on amazon as well. I tried to put 999 in my cart and it didn't balk, so I'm guessing they've built a ton of them this time. And it is Amazon's number 1 best seller in toys and games according to the site, so you can bet Amazon has ordered massive amounts from Lego. I've no doubt they are going to be produced like crazy for now. I actually sold 2 of the 3 sets of these I had (and barely broke even), and would have sold the third had I not had a problem with the ebay listing. Now, unfortunately, it's too late to sell that last set... with free shipping and no taxes from Amazon, I'll never cover my ebay shipping costs. So lesson learned for me is don't jump in on a non-retired sold out set. You never know when Lego will flood the market with them, and you'll never beat Amazon. I'm only going to invest in sets in or very near retirement from now on. I'll keep an eye on them to see if they go out one more time, but unless they do you can't unload them now. The only good thing about this is that maybe Lego will make more of the Cuusoo sets, now that they realize there may be some blockbuster ideas out there. I really, really like some of the Cuusoo concepts I've seen, and I'm hoping Lego will bring more of these ideas to the market than the trickle they've done so far.

    Share this comment


    Link to comment
    Share on other sites



    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
    Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

    Guest
    Add a comment...

    ×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

      Only 75 emoji are allowed.

    ×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

    ×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

    ×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

    Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...