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    Lego Disney Princess Part 1: Will Your Investment Live Happily Ever After? Or Will it Turn into a Toad?


    As we all know, The Lego Group is currently experiencing the prime of their existence of a company. They made over a Billion dollars for the first time ever, have even more products than ever, and is by far the most popular toy in America. They have teamed up with the likes of Marvel and DC, Star Wars, Lord of the Rings, and Harry Potter to get there and improve what is already a mighty brand. So what could they add next that will be able to take them a step higher? What other license could they get that would take them any higher? How about pairing it up with one of the most marketable brands of all time: Disney Princess.

    Disney may be the proverbial "match made in heaven" for Lego as they expand their relationship with them. Just as Lego is experiencing its unparalleled prime, Disney is doing the same. Take a look at the Stock for Disney over the last 10 years:

    Chart  

    As you can see it has doubled in the last 5 years. Just about 8-10 years ago, Disney was cutting budget, closing their parks early, and the future didn't look quite as bright. Lego was in a similar position right before that time almost going bankrupt. However, both companies weathered the storm and forged ahead to experience some of the most profitable times companies in their respective industries ever have. Disney World has experienced a growth in around 2 Million visitors each year for the last 6 years. They lead the world as the most visited Theme park... by 80 million people per year. Stores are filling with more Disney product and Disney stores are starting to pop up everywhere. Vinylmations, small Disney and other license likenesses on small figures with Mickey ears, have become extremely popular (my wife and I have around 100) and have even become decent investments themselves (some of the original lines sell for 10x retail!).

    So with the union of their Disney Princess Line and Lego's fabulous mainline product )I don't count those Duplo sets), will it bring us something we could only... wish for upon a star? Let's take a look (All CAGR predictions are based on a two year run and then 2 years of retirement).

    Ariel's Amazing Treasure 41050

    download (2)               41050b

    Retail: $12.99

    Lego.com Description:

    Discover Ariel’s Amazing Treasures in this amazing underwater world!

    Ariel and her best friend Flounder are searching for lost objects from the human world. Explore the beautiful coral reef and the pretty golden gates with them. Go with Ariel on her adventure to discover all these treasures and hide them away in the treasure chest. Help Ariel practice her singing using the sheet of music, swim through the gates and play tag with Flounder. Includes Ariel mini-doll figure and Flounder.

    • Includes Ariel mini-doll figure and Flounder
    • Features opening golden gates and a treasure chest in a beautiful seaweed surround
    • Accessories include a diamond, pair of binoculars, music sheet, trident, opening shell with hidden pearl and a starfish
    • Search for the many objects and hide them away in the secret treasure chest
    • Look for the pearl inside the shell
    • Help Ariel practice her singing with the music sheet
    • Golden gates measure over 3” (9cm) high, 3” (8cm) wide and 1” (5cm) deep
    • Treasure chest measures over 1” (3cm) wide and under 1” (2cm) wide and 1” (2cm) deep

    My Investment Analysis: This is a great little set. Though it only has one minifigure, it is the perfect one: Ariel. The Little Mermaid is a staple in the Disney Princess line (My Wife's Favorite character by far) and really is to it what Frodo is to Lord of the Rings or Luke Skywalker is to Star Wars. The Little Mermaid is has sets of some of the most recognizable Disney songs and characters. This set is perfect minifigure-wise coming with her and flounder. The rest of the set itself is so-so - I think it might have been a little better if there were more "trinkets from the land world" but it still has a lot of playability with all the treasure. The music sheet is a really nice addition since singing was really the crux of who Ariel is in the movie. This is not one of those sets that will triple or quadruple right after retirement, but I see a lot of worth here. Disney lovers who are older will like the set for the Ariel figure. Small children will love it as a simple set with a lot of playability. I say it will be one of the better winners for a $12.99 set.

    Predicted CAGR: 20%

    Predicted Value: $26.93 Merida's Highland Games 41051

    Retail: $19.99

    41051-1          41051-Meridas-Highland-Games-2  

    Lego.com Description:

    Have fun with Merida and her magically transformed brothers by the castle!

    Merida is practicing her archery skills for the Highland Games! But her 3 little brothers have been turned into naughty little bears and it’s up to her to keep them out of trouble. Join Merida as her brothers shoot cookies from the catapult. Hang up her bow on the beautiful tree or help her catch a fish in the stream. Cook the fish over the fire and, when the food is ready, have dinner at the castle’s dining table… but first Merida must find the hidden key to unlock the door! Includes Merida mini-doll figure and 3 bear cub brothers.

    • Includes Merida mini-doll figure and her triplet bear brothers
    • Features Merida’s castle with an opening door and key, key hook, flowers, dining table, cookie-shooting catapult, tree, mushroom, stream and a camp fire with a fish roasting
    • Accessories include a bow and target, fish, chicken leg and 3 cookies
    • Help Merida discover the secret key to the castle
    • Catch the fish and cook it on the camp fire
    • Toss cookies into the air with the catapult
    • Merida’s castle measures over 3” (8cm) high, 5” (14cm) wide and 1” (4cm) deep
    • Tree measures over 2” (7cm) high, 3” (8cm) wide and 1” (5cm) deep

    My Investment Outlook: I admit, I haven't seen this movie (actually maybe admitting I have seen Disney movies is bad for my "man card"), but I don't need to and neither do you. The movie is POPULAR. First off, its about a Disney Princess who is not really that... princess-ish. More boyish in actions, crazy hair, and a little bit of a wild-child, Merida is someone that a lot of young women really identify with. On top of that, young children love her as well and she has really become the more "modern" Disney Princess.

    The set itself is a little "meh" in my eyes. The little bears and the archery set is nice and is definitely something that would have to be in any Merida set. The castle-front is well done, but I don't think it really adds a lot to the set. It isn't really that impressive and I am not sure that it really offers much play-ability to younger kids as well. I would have liked this as a slightly bigger set with a more "full" looking castle.

    At the same time, the Disney Princess figures of Merida are GONE during Christmas every year. I know because I try to get my young cousin one every year. No matter what this set has in it, the fact that Merida is in it is going to propel it forward. I can not imagine it will not be a huge winner and that the Merida figure wont be a 30$ or 40$ figure later on.

    Predicted CAGR: 25%

    Predicted Value: $48.80

    Ariel's Magical Kiss 41052

    Retail: $29.99

    9200000021797652         lego-disney-princess-pocalunek-arielki-41052 (2)

    Lego.com Description:

    Enjoy a magical boat ride with Ariel and Prince Eric in the lagoon by the palace!

    Come with Ariel as she seeks to break a magic spell! The enchanted mermaid has traded her voice for a chance to be with the lovely Prince Eric. Only a kiss from his royal lips will break the spell! Take a romantic boat ride with her true love where they meet a frog and stop at the tree in the secluded lagoon. Have a beautiful picnic by the sea or a romantic meal in the dining room of the palace. And when Ariel wants to see what is happening in the world she left behind, go to the telescope on the balcony and take a look. Includes 2 mini-doll figures: Ariel and Prince Eric.

    • Includes 2 mini-doll figures: Ariel and Prince Eric
    • Features a royal palace with dining room, bellflower lamp, roof terrace, flags, railings, flowers and telescope, a gazebo boardwalk, plus a lagoon with a tree and a frog
    • Includes a boat with oars and a flag
    • Accessories include a picnic basket, croissant, banana, green apple, royal crown and 2 heart-shaped diamonds
    • Enjoy a delicious lunch in the castle dining room
    • Let Ariel look through the telescope towards her home under the sea
    • Take a romantic boat ride past the lagoon
    • Stop for a picnic by the sea
    • Royal palace measures over 5” (13cm) high, 5” (13cm) wide and 3” (9cm) deep
    • Gazebo boardwalk measures over 2” (7cm) high, 2” (6cm) wide and 3” (10cm) deep
    • Lagoon measures over 1” (5cm) high, 2” (6cm) wide and 1” (5cm) deep
    • Boat measures over 4” (11cm) long and 1” (3cm) wide and under 1” (2cm) high

    My Investment Outlook: What a great mid-range set. I would argue that this may be the most famous Disney scene of all time. Sure there have been a lot of them, but this is really the crux of this movie and something that I think appeals to women everywhere who have ever wanted to fall in love. The song is a classic - one of, if not the most memorable, Disney songs. My wife looked at this line and immediately squealed when she saw this set. I think this will end up being the biggest winner of the line.

    Unlike the last two, all the parts really go together in this set. Everything is part of the lagoon, the boat is really nice with the oars, it has a lot of play-ability, and also doesn't look bad at all as just a display-piece. Though I was hoping each set in this line would be from a different movie, this works fine as the Ariel figure is different - this is the one with actual legs. If you get the other set, you will have to get this one too. DO NOT miss out on this set - it will be a winner pure and simple.

    Predicted CAGR: 30%

    Predicted Value: $85.65

    Check back in for Part 2 of the analysis. I will cover the other three sets, go over some other reasons that this line may be THE one to watch over the next year and my wife will also weigh in a bit more with her "normal person" thoughts on the sets themselves.



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    When I heard about this series first time, I thouht that its a great idea from TLG - it is a perfect combination of succesful Friends sets and popular Disney fairy tales - this mixture MUST be succesful. But I was a little bit disappointed how TLG created these sets. Most of them look like a chaotic mixture of colors, and the figs and buildings doesnt look like in the movies. I think these sets will be selling very good, but they are not good stuff for investions in my opinion. They are seasonal and after EOL and after finishing of advertising campaigne they will be forgotten - and children (mostly the girls) will ask for other sets, which will be seen during advertising breaks of children TVs. And these sets are not for AFOLs... So I would give my money to other stuff.

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    I disagree. There is nothing seasonal about these characters who literally endure in appeal for decades. Girls will never stop loving princesses, Disney ones in particular, and there is nowhere else to get Lego princesses. To me this will pay off bigger than the original Batman lego sets.

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    What would buy these sets in 2, 3 years, when they disappear from the shops? Children or their parents probably will not check the bricklink or ebay, they will buy the stuff curretly presented in shops and promoted in actual advertisements. I remember my difficulties with sale of some Friends sets this Xmas, which were actual 1 year ago, and which were extremly demanded that time, but not after 1 year. Children were addicted on actual stuff, they want the sets, which are modern, actual and which can be seen in TV. And disney princess sets are definitely not for the AFOLs. Anyway, these sets are perfect for actual sale, they will reach a success, but I am very skeptical with these sets as a investing oportunity. Childrens interest is very volatile...

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    I understand the point but with that logic who is buying the ninjago or the friends sets now after retirement. They carry 2 of the top four cagrs by theme. So someone is paying for then. If you don't believe in these you don't believe in those two themes for the same reason IMO

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    Yes, you are right, my opinion is that ninjago and friends are not for investment. Who is buying these sets? ONLY children (i.e. parents for children). I dont know any AFOL who is collecting themes such as Friends, Ninjago, Chima, etc. Ninjago and Chima are crap, which can be selling perfectly, but just that years, during which the advertising campaign is held. After EOL children will seek another stuff, which will be seen in TV, and which have their schoolmates. Almost nobody will seek old ninjago, if TLG finish this serie and start other simiilar stuff. Ninjago is good selling not for the reason that it is perfect, but due the effect of massive advertising. If TLG create fish or elephant mutants living in strange planet and these sets will be hugely supported by advertising, children will want them. But these sets are seasonal, nobody will ask for them in the shops after EOL, nobody will check ebay. This activity is for AFOLs and collectors, which arent interested in such stupid sets. Just few parents will check the secondary market for such sets after EOL of first waves of sets, because their children want to have complete collection of Ninjago etc, but this can happen while the whole theme is alive. The Friends is similar case, these sets have a potential of long popularity, because covers new lego market (girls), but again - if a girl will not see the old set in the shop, she will be satisfy also by a new issued set, because for children is a priority to have some nice building and figs, they dont need necessary the exact set. Also parents will not accept buying the old set for double price as a new set of similar size. This is my point of view. Real life can be different and maybe such sets will raise, but in this moment I CANNOT imagine how somebody seeking a ninjago or friends set 5 years after EOL and is willing to pay double price...

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    I think you are seriously underestimating both children's memory for things they want and parents' willingness and ability to do something about it. Princesses are timeless. Girls never stop wanting these things. And assuming Lego has a good relationship with Disney, this line will continue for some time and girls will want to have as many of the sets as they can, especially ones that other girls can no longer get. Never underestimate kids' desire to have something cool that their friends don't. The answer to the age old question "What do women want" is "What other women have". Boys are not dissimilar. My son and his friends still play with Ninjago and asked for the old sets even when the show was on hiatus for months and Chima was being advertised. He still wants Star Wars sets from 3 years ago. On a side note, I would not be holding these or hardly any sets for 5 years after EOL. The sweet spot for lego sets is 2-3 years after EOL, after which the price barely moves relative to other more recently ended sets, so you should sell then and then start the cycle with some other sets.

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    Its a valid point, but a lot of people have made a lot of money investing in the two other themes already. Like Jeff is saying, that sweet spot is right around the two year mark. I do agree with your points about 5 years down the road. But I think that happens with a lot of sets - especially ones that aren't uniquely special. With as many new sets as Lego pumps out, that will happen - sets will plateau. Only things like The first three modulars or the UCS sets will keep growing. But that doesn't mean there isn't money to be made buying these. I will put my butt on the line by saying each one of these sets doubles the first christmas after they are gone. Will they keep growing after 2 years? Probably not. But hopefully you have sold them and moved on to new sets by then. Still, mesje, good points overall. I really appreciate counter arguments that are presented well. Definitely some food for thought.

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    I think we all have a truth... The most important questions are: a) are parents willing to pay more than 100 % price to satisfy their children? b) have these sets a growing potential similar to LOTR, modulars, exclusives, etc? Because we are limited in money and - simply saying - if I buy a set, which will grow just 50-80% within 2 years, I will not buy another set, which can grow 100-150%. Because almost everything is rising after EOL (except crap as Atlantis, Toy story, etc), so the most important goal is find the best rising sets. I can imagine that many parents will buy some old disney sets, but they will have a limit. I can imagine a father paying 150-170 USD for a set which original price was 100 USD, but I can hardly imagine how somebody pay double price or more - there will be parents willing to pay also this price, but not so much. There is no comparsion with AFOLs paying 500 usd for exlusive set originaly costed 100 usd. A bad side is also a quality of this disney sets. I think they did a very bad job. The sets are not authentic, they used a horrible combination of colors, big parts, etc. I was looking forward to these sets very much (as a present for my daughter), but the sets are awful... I am sorry to telling that, but I am very disappointed. I see this theme in other point of view - it is a perfect stuff for immediate deal before the christmas - to buy some discounted sets during the autumn, and sell before the christmas - in order to satisfy high demand for them, which could be dissatisfied if the classic shops underestimate market demand. This happen in our country a year ago before a christmas (and partly before last christmas), when big Friends sets disappeared and people was able to pay 20-30% bigger price for this stuff (our shops sometimes are stupid and dont supply the right stuff). These sets could be also a good deal before the first Xmas after their EOL - for example, if the 1. wave finish in the end of 2015, there should be a solid demand for them before the Xmas 2016 - some children would like to collect the whole collection, but the 1. wave sets will not be in the shops. Then the investors could earn solid profit within 1 year, so the ratio "profit / stocking time" can be interesting.

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    I just did a search om EBay: typed in "Lego" and got 300k+ listings. "Star Wars" gave me 500+ listings. "Disney" gave me 1.2 million listings. "Disney Princess" was 115k. Take these numbers for what they are worth. Cars isn't popular, but to me it isn't really "Disneyana"....while Cinderellas Castle will be a must own item for any hardcore Disney collector.

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