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Is anyone experiencing a lackluster sales season?

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There's still 2 weeks of shopping and shipping season left. Plenty of time for things to turn around.

 

I've been crushed but I'm a QFLL this time of year. Lego-wise (other than hot flips Advent/MC/Creative Towers), I haven't moved as much as I hoped to, but prices have been pretty stagnant so I haven't really been focusing on it.

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I have been selling tons of old fantasy era sets, dwarf mine,  Castle siege, ect., tons of trains and train tracks, fireboats, Holiday polybags and smaller sets, and other retired city sets, deadpool minifigs, but can't sell a tan pants hulk to save my life.  What sells is always surprising to me and unpredictable.  Though I do not sell a lot of newer stuff, except for the hulk minifigs and deadpools and last years holiday promos.

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I think everyone expected more competition this time around.  I did not expect the magnitude of new sellers though.  Not sure I want to predict how many more is joining the rank since LEGO is going to become more popular

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like Mos said, unless you have a seasoned inventory of retired sets, the first year is always the most difficult especially when you don't have a DC-like situations

also the money is not in Lego this year especially for girls, that honor goes to the Ice Queen . She still got it

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I was expecting to be super busy selling things this season. I ordered all of my shipping supplies in advance, organized my inventory, posted it and have been waiting. The sales have been much slower than anticipated.

I think it's likely due to what I'm listing but perhaps its how I'm listing, or simply that things will pick up this week.

 

I've got the following items listed but have barely moved any:

 

Mixels Series 1

Monster Fighters (Excluding the HH)

Lone Ranger

LOTR HD, UH, OF

Creator Houses (retired sets)

Are you selling international? If not, you should.

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i'm doing alright.  the real 'downer' was the cinderella castle due to TRU and other reasons.

lego was most likely prepared to not have another 2013 holiday season dolphin cruiser debacle.

 

I think we over estimated the popularity of Cinderella in this day and age.  I still see tons of of castles on the shelves this week, not moving.  Maybe next year... I was lucky that I didn't go deep on the castle.  I replenished my supply of Dolphin Cruisers before getting a few castles, but by the time I was ready, I soaked my extra $$$ into exclusives that were disappearing.

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luckily, i didn't "go all out" .  i could have had extra R2s, THs, and / or Arkhams.  i bought them all of them from target last june when a decent sale was going on.  neverthless, it's a nice long hold long-tern.  Disney is Disney...  

 

 

too bad my 90 day return window has expired. WINK WINK.

 

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I think we over estimated the popularity of Cinderella in this day and age.  I still see tons of of castles on the shelves this week, not moving.  Maybe next year... I was lucky that I didn't go deep on the castle.  I replenished my supply of Dolphin Cruisers before getting a few castles, but by the time I was ready, I soaked my extra $$$ into exclusives that were disappearing.

 

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I think it's over for sw advent. 157 sellers and $59 shipped on amz, not much meat on the bone after fees and shipping. I just got some from tru, looking like a bad move. 

 

I had one in my hand at Wal-Mart at lunch.  It scanned $39.99 and I gently set it down.  I did check out another $29 Black Gate.  I'm not sure why I keep buying these things?

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So, it appears that more sellers = greater competition = less sales, and that new sellers are disappointed with reality.

I am just shocked.

But a year ago or so everyone was so certain that the market could handle any number of sellers.

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This hasn't been the year that I expected, but it's been fine.  There has been a lot more competition and that has held price appreciation in check for all but a handful of high performing sets.  I expect this trend to continue next year, which will put a high profit premium on making good set selections.       

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I think it's over for sw advent. 157 sellers and $59 shipped on amz, not much meat on the bone after fees and shipping. I just got some from tru, looking like a bad move. 

 

Just wait until next year when everyone and their mother goes 100 deep on these and all end up scratching their head wondering why they aren't killing it like last year.

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Just wait until next year when everyone and their mother goes 100 deep on these and all end up scratching their head wondering why they aren't killing it like last year.

 

I dunno, that would be unprecedented for an advent. You think Santa Vader can really drive that? I'm sure it will be over msrp but $100 is asking a lot. Not to mention a ton of sellers are going to be left holding these this year. I do hope your right. 

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First off I have had a decent season so far and am currently on pace for my sales goal I set for December.(Thanks Minecraft!)

 

Some of my random thoughts. 

 

A lot of non-exclusives that retired last year are doing somewhat mediocre at this point in time, and not performing as strongly as many of us thought. I'm looking at you HD. I think this is a sign of things to come for sure.

 

The anticipated hot sets that people stocked up on throughout the year are readily available on shelves. (Friends and Princess) How many people accumulated Cinderella's Castle and DC's only to be unable to move any this season?

 

Advent calendars performed poorly last year, probably resulting in less production. That plus a great mini fig(Darth Santa) and they were a winner this year.

 

The big winner this year appears to be the new mine craft line. I applaud those who went all in on them as they must be having a great season. I chickened out and didn't buy as many as I should have, although I did buy enough to make a solid amount of money from them alone.

 

The final big headline is what appears to possibly be a mass retiring of the some of the best exclusives during the second half of the year. Almost none of us were prepared for these sets to meet their demise in such a short period of time. This is leading to great prices for these sets, although I think most are better holding them for awhile.

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One thing I forget to add is one thing that appears to have worked strongly against resellers is the lack of discounting on most lego this holiday season. MSRP = no resellers purchasing = product on shelves = no need to purchase from resellers. It has worked amazing well.

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A lot of non-exclusives that retired last year are doing somewhat mediocre at this point in time, and not performing as strongly as many of us thought. I'm looking at you HD. I think this is a sign of things to come for sure.

 

Advent calendars performed poorly last year, probably resulting in less production. That plus a great mini fig(Darth Santa) and they were a winner this year.

 

 

 

I sold a few Helms for $180. Pretty happy with that, got in at $90. It's not doing well if you paid msrp but I think it's doing pretty good considering what most paid. 

 

SW Advents did great last year. They peaked higher than this year. 2012 they were duds. 

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One thing I forget to add is one thing that appears to have worked strongly against resellers is the lack of discounting on most lego this holiday season. MSRP = no resellers purchasing = product on shelves = no need to purchase from resellers. It has worked amazing well.

 

I liked it...but I don't like it!

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I sold a few Helms for $180. Pretty happy with that, got in at $90. It's not doing well if you paid msrp but I think it's doing pretty good considering what most paid. 

 

SW Advents did great last year. They peaked higher than this year. 2012 they were duds. 

HD is profitable for sure, but is not quite performing up to what I think most of us thought it would do. 

 

I might be thinking back to 2012 on the advents. It all just blurs together at this point,

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I dunno, that would be unprecedented for an advent. You think Santa Vader can really drive that? I'm sure it will be over msrp but $100 is asking a lot. Not to mention a ton of sellers are going to be left holding these this year. I do hope your right. 

 

The past is prologue...what I think will happen next year is that there will be a hoard of people who watched last year's SW advent or have been watching this year's SW advent skyrocket and, as a result, will conclude that next year's advent will be a sure-fire winner that couldn't possibly lose, which will lead them to buy heavily into next year's edition.  Meanwhile, having watched how inventory levels for this year's edition fared, the smart folks at TLG will conclude that they distributed too few advents this year and will adjust their distribution numbers upwards, which will leave the sets in the stores longer and squeeze the window of time in which resellers could take advantage of inventory shortfalls.  Then, when all of the resellers go to sell, they will find that it's more difficult to sell all of the extra sets that they have put back and prices won't climb as high or as fast as they assumed they would.

 

All just speculation, but, in my experience, assuming that a seasonal set will perform simply because an earlier one did is much more of a gamble than it seems.  The SW advents have performed well each of the last two years, but go back and look at how the two editions before those performed...it's a very different picture.   

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But a year ago or so everyone was so certain that the market could handle any number of sellers.

 

Long time sellers who keep records certainly knew (a couple years back), as the metrics started to go south.

 

On the bright side, I think the worst is over - as it seems that there are many LEGO investors getting out, as others are getting in.

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The past is prologue...what I think will happen next year is that there will be a hoard of people who watched last year's SW advent or have been watching this year's SW advent skyrocket and, as a result, will conclude that next year's advent will be a sure-fire winner that couldn't possibly lose, which will lead them to buy heavily into next year's edition.  Meanwhile, having watched how inventory levels for this year's edition fared, the smart folks at TLG will conclude that they distributed too few advents this year and will adjust their distribution numbers upwards, which will leave the sets in the stores longer and squeeze the window of time in which resellers could take advantage of inventory shortfalls.  Then, when all of the resellers go to sell, they will find that it's more difficult to sell all of the extra sets that they have put back and prices won't climb as high or as fast as they assumed they would.

 

All just speculation, but, in my experience, assuming that a seasonal set will perform simply because an earlier one did is much more of a gamble than it seems.  The SW advents have performed well each of the last two years, but go back and look at how the two editions before those performed...it's a very different picture.   

 

The funny thing is, when the SW Advent hit $55, I was telling myself it wasn't worth the hassle.  When it hit $75, I was picking up every one I could at discount.

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The funny thing is, when the SW Advent hit $55, I was telling myself it wasn't worth the hassle.  When it hit $75, I was picking up every one I could at discount.

 

Smart move and one that I would have followed if I had been paying closer attention.

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