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Are LEGO Bricks a Better Investment Than Stocks?


Ed Mack

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You can also part it out or even sell the packaging and manuals (some manuals are worth more than new mid priced set). In desperate times, it can also be sold as a job lot per weight so there are a number of ways to the skin the cat that other investments I can think of don´t offer.

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15 hours ago, valenciaeric said:

Greed will entrap people, for sure - it always does. Promise good enough returns and they will invest in anything they don´t understand.

Very true. I'm afraid that's what is going on with Lego currently judging by the last 2 months of some posts.  Additionally, for the last year quite a few of the people who post here about reselling , never build anything. I never understood people who invest in something that they either don't actually use or have a deep understanding about it (same way I pick stocks)

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13 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

Very true. I'm afraid that's what is going on with Lego currently judging by the last 2 months of some posts.  Additionally, for the last year quite a few of the people who post here about reselling , never build anything. I never understood people who invest in something that they either don't actually use or have a deep understanding about it (same way I pick stocks)

Its human nature. The grass is greener on the other side and if you know a sector really well, you probably have a realistic view of the pros and cons. When something is flashy and new and other people are hyping it up, curiosity takes over and people lose rationality and take risks for the thrill, greed or whatever.

To digress, I remember my days working in motorsport - the number of young lads that would do any number of badly paid work to live the dream was incredible. After they do it for a while they get jaded and either quit to get a better paid job or start their own teams to make money and employ the next generation of gullible souls.

Edited by valenciaeric
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You know this brings up a point.  In the stock market, it was interesting when everything crashed hard back in 08/09, and a ton of people got out of the game and moved on.  But those that can afford it rode the wave and continued to invest in it and have since reaped major rewards and even more gains then they could've imagined.

I feel this needs to happen to Lego.  I think there should be a big enough bubble and then enough people liquidate all their sets and completely crash the secondary market.

You'll get enough shell shocked people that will warn others to stay away and cull a ton of people that didn't know what the were doing.  And as long as Lego stays strong as a company, those that can weather a storm like that, can then reap the benefits of having, (pure speculation at this point,) thousands of less hoarders out there and being able to recoup and make good money again.

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I suggest following the oil market closely then as they are having their crash. A lot of people who didn´t get out will have to ride the storm on the faith that it is a scarce commodity and will have to go back up at some point. It might actually be a good time to invest in oil.

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14 minutes ago, citymorgue said:

If You know this brings up a point.  In the stock market, it was interesting when everything crashed hard back in 08/09, and a ton of people got out of the game and moved on.  But those that can afford it rode the wave and continued to invest in it and have since reaped major rewards and even more gains then they could've imagined.

I feel this needs to happen to Lego.  I think there should be a big enough bubble and then enough people liquidate all their sets and completely crash the secondary market.

You'll get enough shell shocked people that will warn others to stay away and cull a ton of people that didn't know what the were doing.  And as long as Lego stays strong as a company, those that can weather a storm like that, can then reap the benefits of having, (pure speculation at this point,) thousands of less hoarders out there and being able to recoup and make good money again.

 

some sort of scare is needed but I fear a correction (what some people call a bubble).  If a correction happens, will we  get the same type of demand back as say pre-2014 levels? We also have to worry if Lego (as a company) will suffer long-term damage as  others in the past.

the diff between the stock, bond, fund, etc... markets are people always return to them.  Businesses rely on the exchanges.  

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4 hours ago, ED-209 said:

I personally reckon that the new Star Wars wave are pretty good. X wing, Tie, Freezing Chamber, Final Duel and Hoth Attack look pretty good in my eyes. As investments? maybe not so much. They are gonna be hoarded as all hell and if TLG don't realise what's happening to their brand, are likely to be over-produced.

The problem I see here for TLG is how do they ensure that there product gets into the hands of end users and not stockpiled by resellers? 
If the only place the average joe can get it is by the QFLL at an inflated price on eBay then it doesn't look too good for TLG.  Surely at some point people will begin to say enough is enough and the end users lose interest in Lego.
The only way I can see TLG ensuring there product gets to enough end users in the usual product lifecycle is to over produce to account for the "hoard demand".  

But i get your point.  What happens and how quickly can they react when the casual re-sellers move onto the next big thing? Suddenly that part of the demand isnt there anymore and TLG dont want to be left slow selling inventory.

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11 minutes ago, Lego_Yoda said:

I was going to say getting burgled but this defo tops it! Especially if they carry the plague.

Both options, you lose it all, it is sad but it's only a bit of money lost. My point probably is invest what you can lose. 

 

All markets have perma bears and bulls, both will be right at some point. 

Edited by josh_676
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I can see some creative lego investment vehicles being created. There are ways to invest in musicians right now. David Bowie being a very timely example. 

Another thing that distinguishes lego from certain other investments is that it has a certain intrinsic floor value below which it can't really go. Stocks and bonds are basically priced based on the market's confidence in the company's/country's reputation. The actual item you own, the certificate, is just paper and is worth next to nothing. Similar with the baseball card and comic book booms and busts from the 90s. At the end of the day, you were buying paper at far more than its cost to produce. Lego on the other hand has a certain basic cost to make. We quote the ten cent per piece formula routinely and that is highly connected to what it costs the Danes to actually build these things. It is impossible to imagine a scenario where lego can become worthless. Someone will pay x price for y amount of bricks so no one should ever be stick with product that is literally worth nothing. Lego is more like a commodity in that sense. 

The real danger is if Lego gets worried that not enough of its customers can get its products at retail and then floods the market to provide choice and wipes out the secondary market. This is why it's always advantageous to get it on sale. Then you can still compete with retail, which is still a much better return than bank accounts.

On the topic of paying down the mortgage vs other options, one thing a lot of people overlook is their amortization schedule. If you're still early days on your mortgage, the amount that goes to principal and the amount that goes to interest is often 1 to 1 or even a situation of more going to interest than principal. So while the lifetime mortgage rate might be 3-4%, at those times it's effectively 100% so far better to pay down early with any extra dollars. In such circumstances, every extra dollar you pay on your mortgage results in a corresponding 100% or more savings on interest. Or, paying $10,000 extra will save you $10,000 in interest.

Edited by jeff_14
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26 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

As of a couple of minutes ago, the DOW was down almost 500 points.  I can safely say that as of this moment, LEGO bricks are a better investment than stocks....LOL

I dunno the cheaper the Dow gets the more attractive it is. A couple more weeks of indecision and fear by the masses and I will come in and make money hand over fist. I love me some blood in the water :) 

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7 minutes ago, asharerin said:

I dunno the cheaper the Dow gets the more attractive it is. A couple more weeks of indecision and fear by the masses and I will come in and make money hand over fist. I love me some blood in the water :) 

True dat. As Saint Buffett sayeth - Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy. I'll be watching to see trading volumes return to normal as a sign to buy because the lemmings will have safely plunged over the cliff by then.

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11 minutes ago, jeff_14 said:

True dat. As Saint Buffett sayeth - Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy. I'll be watching to see trading volumes return to normal as a sign to buy because the lemmings will have safely plunged over the cliff by then.

Funny that, as there is an Ebay user calles buffett_FTW who has just listed over 100 exclusives.

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