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Ideas #015: 21306 - Yellow Submarine

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Guest TabbyBoy
Just now, exciter1 said:

Nope, most are dead now.

Live expectancy in the US must be lower than I thought as 70 (Beatle fan age) is still "young" in the UK ;-)

The Beatles are timeless like Elvis who's made more money in his grave than out of it.

I don't want to be led-into-temptation if Asda sell this for silly money tomorrow.

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Guest TabbyBoy
2 minutes ago, Phil B said:

ce75c3943ac475c1edbd5efd16de9d07.jpg

LOL - Just like my Tabby during his beer drinking days:

 

ms-XHAbzH.gif

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Not a commentary on the quality of the set or the importance of the Beatles to music, but I just don't see these things being that sought after by the time the dust settles.

There is no doubt in my mind that BTTF fans are more likely to be into LEGO than a Beatles fan of any age.

LEGO is going to flood the market with these things... my local mom and pop store even got some on he first day which is highly unusual this time of year.

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19 minutes ago, gregpj said:

Not a commentary on the quality of the set or the importance of the Beatles to music, but I just don't see these things being that sought after by the time the dust settles.

There is no doubt in my mind that BTTF fans are more likely to be into LEGO than a Beatles fan of any age.

LEGO is going to flood the market with these things... my local mom and pop store even got some on he first day which is highly unusual this time of year.

Yeah but it´s the (grand) sons and daughters who will be buying them for their parents that count too.

28 minutes ago, Phil B said:

ce75c3943ac475c1edbd5efd16de9d07.jpg

Post of the day.

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33 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

The Beatles are timeless like Elvis who's made more money in his grave than out of it.

I listen to the Beatles with my 5-year old daughter every week or so in the car at her request.  Her 2nd favorite song: Yellow Submarine.  1st is Eleanor Rigby.

On topic...not sure about the investment potential (I don't know why anyone would bother speculating since we don't know true demand/crossover appeal/lifespan), but it sounds like it won't materialize as a 2016 QF candidate with the number reported on shelves.  In for 1 for my personal collection until late 2017 or beyond...

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I will buy one for myself at a good discount. Worth keeping an eye on this one when it starts retiring. At that moment in time one can better judge if it will be worth to invest in. Now it is very premature.

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19 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Yeah but it´s the (grand) sons and daughters who will be buying them for their parents that count too.

The pool of sons and daughters who will be buying them is smaller than we think. Not only does the parent/grand parent need to be an avid Beatles fan or collector <let's face it, 70 year old grannies and gramps aren't going to be keen on building with teenie tiny blocks), but the kids need to be into LEGO. I believe the cross over here is much smaller than between BTTF fans and LEGO fans.

But the future is not known... What appears to be a great set is at the mercy of the horde and it's lifespan on the market. I have personally stopped collecting every IDEAS/Cuuso set. There are just too many now. I only collect them if I _really_ like them.

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This is another set (like doctor who) which will do alot better in UK than USA. There is alot of demand here, my local lego and b&m all sold out first day. 

That being said going by previous idea sets, licensed ideas sets have 2 year life span and non ip with 1 year, so plenty of time to go.

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2 minutes ago, Mhd747 said:

That being said going by previous idea sets, licensed ideas sets have 2 year life span and non ip with 1 year, so plenty of time to go.

What Ideas sets have you been looking at, Ecto-1 is the only licenced set that's gone that long.

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Guest TabbyBoy

I'm actually going to sit this set out for a while unless George drops it to £24.99 tomorrow which is very unlikely. If it's as widespread as consensus tells us, it's odds-on that it'll be discounted in the future with no buying limits. If it's constantly OOS, then it's time to start flipping.

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For some reason I though this might be an exclusive. Bugger.

However I suspect it will be a winner with similar performance to the Doctor Who (which I suspect has a one year licence and will go at the end of this month). So there will be high demand over Christmas, going to very high should any store run out of stock. I'll relist one of mine at £99.99 on a 30 day listing to see if there are any bites. I doubt it but you never know.

Flipping wise, early eBay UK sales show the 4 minifigs going for £40 and the Sub for £30. You'll make money, only if you can get the set at a discount. 
As yet, no one has tried selling the figures individually. They may go for £15+ each. The Velma figure from 75904 goes for £20.

 

Edited by CNH1974

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1 hour ago, Sprocket77 said:

What Ideas sets have you been looking at, Ecto-1 is the only licenced set that's gone that long.

Judging future performance on past sets doesn't mean much nowadays with so many resellers + production runs etc, but looking at the previous ideas sets i came to conclusion that non IP sets are less than 1 year, and licensed sets are between 1-2 years

All data taken from brickset for UK dates, for current sets not retired I've used todays date as an end date 

 

Non IP sets:

Hayabusa - 21101 160
Exo-Suit - 21109 277
Research Institute - 21110 184
Birds - 21301 291
Maze - 21305 215

 

average duration = 225 days

Mars rover excluded as that was actually a limited release, no data for first ideas set submarine japan release

 

Licensed sets

Minecraft Micro World: The Forest - 21102 837
The DeLorean Time Machine - 21103 429
Ghostbusters Ecto-1 - 21108 885
The Big Bang Theory - 21302 459
WALL-E - 21303 428
Doctor Who - 21304 337
  562

average duration = 562 days

 

Yes some of the values are obscured because of 1/2 sets, but this is hardly a detailed analysis

I obviously waste too much time thinking about this.

 

111.JPG

ideas.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Mhd747 said:

Judging future performance on past sets doesn't mean much nowadays with so many resellers + production runs etc, but looking at the previous ideas sets i came to conclusion that non IP sets are less than 1 year, and licensed sets are between 1-2 years

All data taken from brickset for UK dates, for current sets not retired I've used todays date as an end date 

 

Non IP sets:

Hayabusa - 21101 160
Exo-Suit - 21109 277
Research Institute - 21110 184
Birds - 21301 291
Maze - 21305 215

 

average duration = 225 days

Mars rover excluded as that was actually a limited release, no data for first ideas set submarine japan release

 

Licensed sets

Minecraft Micro World: The Forest - 21102 837
The DeLorean Time Machine - 21103 429
Ghostbusters Ecto-1 - 21108 885
The Big Bang Theory - 21302 459
WALL-E - 21303 428
Doctor Who - 21304 337
  562

average duration = 562 days

 

Yes some of the values are obscured because of 1/2 sets, but this is hardly a detailed analysis

I obviously waste too much time thinking about this.

 

111.JPG

ideas.jpg

 

I'd forgotten about Minecraft, so take Minecraft and Ecto-1 out and it comes down to an average of 14 months, so barely more than a year rather than 2 years.

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@Mhd747: Thanks for the analysis.

My humble conclusion, without a thorough analysis, is that the secret why Hayabusa, DeLorean and Mars Rover (even was a true lego exclusive) did so well lays in the set number. Respectively... 21101, 21103 and 21104. In general, the first sets in a new theme always do well. Cause many people receive these new themes with alot of scepsism. Then... when the theme appears to be succesful. People start to squeeze the theme like an orange and expect the same results.

As a confirmation... look for example at the first wave of Friends, Super Heroes wave 1 or Mixels the first series.  

Edited by Ciglione
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2 hours ago, Sfcommando14 said:

I listen to the Beatles with my 5-year old daughter every week or so in the car at her request.  Her 2nd favorite song: Yellow Submarine.  1st is Eleanor Rigby.

On topic...not sure about the investment potential (I don't know why anyone would bother speculating since we don't know true demand/crossover appeal/lifespan), but it sounds like it won't materialize as a 2016 QF candidate with the number reported on shelves.  In for 1 for my personal collection until late 2017 or beyond...

my 6 and 7  yo daughters also love yellow submarine and many other beatles tunes - and I'm not the one who "turned them on" to the beatles either - one of my daughter's nurses got her hooked on beatles and ELVIS!!!!.  wth 

beatles are timeless musically.  whether that translates into plastic profit post EOL is another story.  clearly, there is no air in the QFLL tire on this one.

Edited by cladner
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4 hours ago, TabbyBoy said:

Surely Beatles fans must outweigh BTTF fans by at least 10:1, right?

Halloween Night, I had no Beatles show up as trick or treaters, but I did have one Marty McFly show up.

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2 minutes ago, Alpinemaps said:

Halloween Night, I had no Beatles show up as trick or treaters, but I did have one Marty McFly show up.

If this is the new measure of how a set should do, then the Vampire and Bat set, anything with Harley Quinn and any Spider-Man set should be the best sellers around my area this year.

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1 hour ago, Alpinemaps said:

Halloween Night, I had no Beatles show up as trick or treaters, but I did have one Marty McFly show up.

Whatever happened to just dressing up as frankenstein or witches? Or am I just getting old? lol

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Whatever happened to just dressing up as frankenstein or witches? Or am I just getting old? lol

I think we're getting old, my son wanted to dress up as buzz lightyear, I refused and meet him half way by allowing him to wear his batman outfit!!!

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3 hours ago, Mhd747 said:

Judging future performance on past sets doesn't mean much nowadays with so many resellers + production runs etc, but looking at the previous ideas sets i came to conclusion that non IP sets are less than 1 year, and licensed sets are between 1-2 years

All data taken from brickset for UK dates, for current sets not retired I've used todays date as an end date 

 

Non IP sets:

Hayabusa - 21101 160
Exo-Suit - 21109 277
Research Institute - 21110 184
Birds - 21301 291
Maze - 21305 215

 

average duration = 225 days

Mars rover excluded as that was actually a limited release, no data for first ideas set submarine japan release

 

Licensed sets

Minecraft Micro World: The Forest - 21102 837
The DeLorean Time Machine - 21103 429
Ghostbusters Ecto-1 - 21108 885
The Big Bang Theory - 21302 459
WALL-E - 21303 428
Doctor Who - 21304 337
  562

average duration = 562 days

 

Yes some of the values are obscured because of 1/2 sets, but this is hardly a detailed analysis

I obviously waste too much time thinking about this.

 

111.JPG

ideas.jpg

Thanls for the analysis. Maze could well be done this quarter too then.

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18 hours ago, Val-E said:

Thanls for the analysis. Maze could well be done this quarter too then.

Birds lasted 10 months. If Maze takes an example from Birds, it would go around February 2017. We'll see...

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24 minutes ago, Haay said:

Birds lasted 10 months. If Maze takes an example from Birds, it would go around February 2017. We'll see...

Feb retirements are countable on one finger.

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