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Are Star Wars sets turning into a lame duck?


scythanith

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Every time I log into my brickfolio I consistently see the large majority of my set values that have decreased are my upper end SW sets. Has the flooding of the market with multiple versions and reiterations finally caught up with the collector value of the originals? I tend to think that there will always be a market for a set if it has something that makes it unique. I am not a big flipper, I have no desire to buy 50 sets and flip each for a 10% profit. I like to collect just like a comic book collector. But I will usually buy two, one to build and enjoy and one to stay minty fresh. So I guess with that reasoning I will always just buy what I like and not really worry about resale. Although it is nice to not lose money....

Thoughts?

Screen Shot 2018-04-06 at 9.50.35 AM.png

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The short answer is yes.

But, as always, with a really low buy-in you can still make good money on some of the more popular play sets like 75105.

Those that got 150 USD Death Stars from Target are also unlikely to have problems turning a profit.

Edited by Val-E
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I'd say the decline began in early 2017 and won't recover anytime soon.  Anything you have that was purchased previous to the force awakens did well.  After the first force friday release sets have tanked.  A few sets have done ok, but only if you bought them at half off.  

I will not pursue star wars sets this year to invest in.  The entire brand is a dead duck.

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47 minutes ago, CosmicSpeed said:

I think the real answer is that people and the market in general are becoming over saturated with Star Wars. There is no more sense of anticipation of when another film will be, and there is now a forever-stream of Star Wars merchandise in general. 

When I was a kid, there was 3 years between Star Wars films, and we got around 20-30 new Star Wars figures between films. We also were willing to go to the theater several months after release to view it again, because Star Wars could stay in the theaters for a year or more. With the PT, we still had 3 years between each one, but the toys had increased exponentially.  Having 1 a year has really cut down on anticipation. The large amount of sets and such has really cut into things too. Brickheadz, buildable figures, micro fighters, 4 releases of sets a year as well as multiple UCS per year that don't have a set life cycle are eating away at the urgency that people once possessed. Plus, the average cost per wave has been going up. Not only are the individual sets more expensive for their size than previously, but also, the lower cost sets have been pushed aside for a higher percentage of larger sets with the slack being made up with the offshoot brands.

I think a part of the malaise is also due to the over-diversification. Hasbro has a number of lines releasing the same figures in different scales, Lego is releasing Star Wars in 5 different styles. We're getting away from the core of what makes the series collectible. People who were completionists are now forced to make a decision about which of the lines are most important and some are just throwing up their hands in disgust. Where I might have bought every set from a given release cycle, I am now being much more selective. Some sets will only make it into my personal collection if I spot them heavily discounted.

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They are a lame duck...With the exception of a few special sets or sets that are bought at extremely discounted prices, the STAR WARS theme is done as an investment.  Until LEGO and Disney part ways, there will be an overproduction of STAR WARS sets that cost too much and differ very little from predecessors.  

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Guest TabbyBoy
18 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

They are a lame duck...With the exception of a few special sets or sets that are bought at extremely discounted prices, the STAR WARS theme is done as an investment.  Until LEGO and Disney part ways, there will be an overproduction of STAR WARS sets that cost too much and differ very little from predecessors.  

That's the reason why I've been avoiding Star Wars and Super Heroes sets. Not only that, but Disney have really killed off the franchise IMHO. I finally went to the cinema again to see TLJ and walked out even earlier than last time - a dreadful movie and a real insult to OT fans. Disney are greedy leeches, nothing more.

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7 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

That's the reason why I've been avoiding Star Wars and Super Heroes sets. Not only that, but Disney have really killed off the franchise IMHO. I finally went to the cinema again to see TLJ and walked out even earlier than last time - a dreadful movie and a real insult to OT fans. Disney are greedy leeches, nothing more.

Ive been doing great with Star Wars and super heroes, which is my main focus. It's all about waiting for the good discount. These are iconic characters for the most part and will always be somewhat popular. And there's always another Timmy joining the fandom every day whose eyes light up when they see sets from a few years ago that they must have.

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27 minutes ago, jeff_14 said:

Ive been doing great with Star Wars and super heroes, which is my main focus. It's all about waiting for the good discount. These are iconic characters for the most part and will always be somewhat popular. And there's always another Timmy joining the fandom every day whose eyes light up when they see sets from a few years ago that they must have.

Little Timmy need not worry...LEGO remakes most retired STAR WARS sets at some point.    

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Although TLG do remake a lot of SW LEGO sets, I feel their hand is kind of forced with the designs that LFL/Disney have been handing to them with the new movies. There's not much that's compelling or different enough from what has gone before. TIE fighters, X-Wings, Star Destroyers, Walkers -- they're all essentially harking back to designs that are thirty-forty years old. And the totally new designs that are introduced in these new movies just aren't as compelling, IMO.

Rogue One fared the best in this regard: the U-Wing is probably the one new craft they've introduced that's on a par with the original designs. Maybe Krennic's shuttle, although there again it's just a variation on the tri-wing shuttle from ROTJ, as is Kylo Ren's shuttle.

Obviously we all know how many different versions of the Falcon there have been.

It's very telling that there hasn't been a single UCS set for any of the ships from the new movies. That said, even prequel-era designs got stiffed: just the Jedi and Naboo starfighters, wasn't it?

 

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17 minutes ago, sauromosis said:

Overproduction and lame characters and ships that kids don't give a crap about. 

Lame characters.  Yep.  Funny, the one character I like (Rey) and her Buildable Figure is basically worthless.  Go figure.  

2 minutes ago, ravenb99 said:

pffft speak for yourself.  I'm just waiting to get my hands on this one and all will be good...

kylo.jpg

That's hot!

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2 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

With the exception of a few special sets or sets that are bought at extremely discounted prices, the STAR WARS theme is done as an investment.  

Lego in general is done. Arbitrage will work if you can get a nice discount. Tradition 'hold after retirement' investing seems to be kaput.

Bubble thread alert!

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LEGO could have prevented most of our current issues (it isn't really a SW issue) - just by making good decisions.

It is baffling that they could not have been aware of the obvious consequences of changing the view of their product from being a precious collectible into just another disposable toy.

I don't get it - but I guess the got what they wanted.

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Guest TabbyBoy
13 hours ago, marcandre said:

Lego in general is done. Arbitrage will work if you can get a nice discount. Tradition 'hold after retirement' investing seems to be kaput.

Bubble thread alert!

My thoughts exactly. There's no longer any money in it unless you get huge discounts. The other problem is that if you can buy cheap, so can others!

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plenty of recent winners if you can pick them.

75082 Tie Advanced Prototype $75 lowest FBA - easily obtained $32 in bulk
75087 Anakin Jedi Starfighter - $74 msrp 40
75092 - Naboo Starfighter - lowest FBA $90 - easily obtained in bulk $35-40
75135 - Obi's Jedi Interceptor $58 msrp 25 easily obtained $17-19
75150 Awing vs tie $128 - easily obtained at $56.
75134 Galactic Empire Battle Pack - $39 - msrp $15 easily obtained for $12.

recent retiree 75145 eclipse fighter  (ewwww!!!!) - lowest FBA: already $44 easily obtained for $19-21.

one set i always beat myself up about not arm sweeping the many I came across:

The Ghost 75053 - lowest amazon $350 - pretty easily obtained for $60-70.


the list goes on.

pick the wrong sets, yeah star wars investing sucks.  just like stocks and crypto.

Edited by cladner
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18 hours ago, KShine said:

LEGO could have prevented most of our current issues (it isn't really a SW issue) - just by making good decisions.

It is baffling that they could not have been aware of the obvious consequences of changing the view of their product from being a precious collectible into just another disposable toy.

I don't get it - but I guess the got what they wanted.

They are still doing it too...Another year of decreasing profits ahead I'm afraid.

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