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70810 - MetalBeard's Sea Cow


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This will be a flop of the year in my opinion. The set looks awfully, it is unusable for AFOLs - it has far to flying ships from Verne novels and you also cannot turn it into classic pirate ship. And as a present for children is extremly expensive. So who will buy this set???

The whole populality of this set is lying on the Lego Movie - but this movie is just average, after few months nobody will remember it and without the movie is this set just stupid combination of bricks and colors.

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For once, I am a bit on the fence about a set.  I like the size and variety of pieces.  It's very creative and looks like a very complicated build with a lot of nooks and crannies.  That being said, I wouldn't put it display in my office.  Maybe I'm an old fart that likes iconic ships and buildings, or nasty looking creations.  This set is not my personal cup of tea.  I still think it will be successful as an investment, but I wondering how much interest this set will get from kids at such a high price.  Many of these larger, higher priced sets need adult interest to be worthwhile investments on the secondary market, so I'm not getting too excited about this set yet.

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This will be a flop of the year in my opinion. The set looks awfully, it is unusable for AFOLs - it has far to flying ships from Verne novels and you also cannot turn it into classic pirate ship. And as a present for children is extremly expensive. So who will buy this set???

The whole populality of this set is lying on the Lego Movie - but this movie is just average, after few months nobody will remember it and without the movie is this set just stupid combination of bricks and colors.

 

I'd get one at 50% off, for sure.  I might look to pick up 1 or 2, but I have to see what the market looks like in a year or so.

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This will be a flop of the year in my opinion. The set looks awfully, it is unusable for AFOLs - it has far to flying ships from Verne novels and you also cannot turn it into classic pirate ship. And as a present for children is extremly expensive. So who will buy this set???

The whole populality of this set is lying on the Lego Movie - but this movie is just average, after few months nobody will remember it and without the movie is this set just stupid combination of bricks and colors.

 

Lego Movie may be "just average" but it's looking like it's going to win the box office again this weekend and there are already plans for a sequel.

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As i said the biggest problem of this set for future growth is the fact that it is not looking like a regular ship..... even Pirate Ship Ambush looks better than this for more ''realistic'' MOCs and displays....

 

Sure if LEGO movie is amazing and if ship is featured in 2nd part (hopefuly slightly more than reports say now) then it might do good.... but for now I cant see it doing amazingly good!

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This will be a flop of the year in my opinion. The set looks awfully, it is unusable for AFOLs - it has far to flying ships from Verne novels and you also cannot turn it into classic pirate ship. And as a present for children is extremly expensive. So who will buy this set???

The whole populality of this set is lying on the Lego Movie - but this movie is just average, after few months nobody will remember it and without the movie is this set just stupid combination of bricks and colors.

 

All of your logic is sound, except for the assertion that no one will remember it. 

 

I'm not saying that Emmet is the next Sheriff Woody, but the success of the movie up to this point puts it in rarified air. 

 

It's clear that many here have not paid close attention to the reviews and general response to this movie

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All of your logic is sound, except for the assertion that no one will remember it. 

 

I'm not saying that Emmet is the next Sheriff Woody, but the success of the movie up to this point puts it in rarified air. 

 

It's clear that many here have not paid close attention to the reviews and general response to this movie

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This will be a flop of the year in my opinion. The set looks awfully, it is unusable for AFOLs - it has far to flying ships from Verne novels and you also cannot turn it into classic pirate ship. And as a present for children is extremly expensive. So who will buy this set???

The whole populality of this set is lying on the Lego Movie - but this movie is just average, after few months nobody will remember it and without the movie is this set just stupid combination of bricks and colors.

The very reasons you`ve given why you dislike this ship are the very same reasons why I love it. There, I`ve said it,  I love this ship!  :thumbsup:

 

Also, I beg to differ on that point. The ship really is designed as a Steampunk creation, even though the Lego Movie really didn`t touch on that concept. I`m a huge fan of that concept, and even though I`ve seen the Lego Movie already, my interest was peaked when the very first image showed up online a month ago. My opinion would be that those who are not familiar with the Steampunk concept but saw the ship in the movie may be attracted to the very different/wacky style of build that this is. Steampunk is not everyones cup of tea, and when compared to other concepts, I`d say it is much more of a smaller niche. You either like it or you don`t. While it would make sense, as others have said, to be "on the fence" about that point, I`d still say it`s either a concept you like, or prefer something else. So no, I don`t think all of the popularity is resting on the Lego Movie. That goes for AFOLs. Absolutely it will drive sales to those who are not familiar, but it`s very much a unique ship and the price point will likely prevent it from becoming a huge hit. That doesn`t mean it`s not a good ship, I seriously love it, it`s most of what I`d want in a Lego Steampunk ship, and in some ways, more so. That`s me personally, but of course everyone has their own taste. Clearly you are not a Steampunk enthusiast, and I respect that, but to say that it is "just a stupid combination of bricks and colours" would not be a true statement to someone who is a fan, like myself. I don`t think the designers could have done much better with this, I`ll be buying one most likely during double VIP, because even though I love the ship, money still needs to be maximized. 

 

 

As far as investing goes, that I would agree with being on the fence about. If everyone was a Steampunk fan and enjoyed it, then I`d say it would be a shoe in as a large investment. Sadly, not very many are, and most kids, if not all, don`t even know what the concept is. That`s going to hurt demand. We`ll have to see what the market and popularity for this set is a year from now to better gage the ship for investment. 

 

 

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Yes, I understand that these movie sets are popular, but it is a result of massive campaign of TLG. In normal world, such stupid sets like transformer ice cream car or flying knights must be a crap. Children are extremly under the influence of advertisement. TLG can produce anything, with a massive campaign it will be popular. But just for 1-2 seasons. After finishing the campain, nobody will ask for movie sets, chima, ninjago etc. Children will be interested in another stuff, maybe mutant monkeys or flying dogs :-) Such crap as movie sets or chima will be on a dustbin of history.

If the seacow would be a 700-1000 pieces set for 100 dollars, I would understand if it will be well selling. But 2700 pieces set for 250 dollars (250 euros in Europe) ??? No way... It is too pricey for children and not so attractive for teenagers and AFOLs, because this set is too childlike and without the Movie is nothing special. Everything is about combination of attractivity / price / target customers - you can easy sell 250 dollars set, if it is worth to pay such money, you can also have success with 400 dollars set, if it is a great exclusive building such Taj Mahal. But 250 for childlike set? No way... I bet in my country TLG sell 2-3 sets of the seacow - because for our people is 250 eur unreal price for children present, and I dont know any AFOL, who will pay such money for this set. OK, our economic situation is not perfect, but I have doubts that just few parents will buy this set for children even in rich countries.

 

In the U.S., and other places where VOD (video on demand) and various streaming services are the norm in upper middle class households, the "shelf life" of any toy line tied to a TV show or movie is changing. This, I believe, based on my selling experience, means that the correlation between the length of a marketing campaign/initial run (theatrical or broadcast), etc.,  is much weaker than in past. 

 

Of course, relatively speaking, the interest will drop off, but not so much so that investors/resellers are going to stuck with a product that nobody wants. I can't WAIT to buy creative-looking sets like the ice cream machine that people like yourself (the majority?) are going to leave on shelves/online at 50% off. 

 

There's a certain amount of paralysis by over analysis happening in regards to these "kid" targeted themes. Look at some of the, Power Miners sets, for example. They were considered crap when put out, and now, "look pretty cool" (er, sell well).

 

In terms of the target audience, number of bricks, etc., I agree with you. Perhaps a missed opportunity to put out a real winner at the $80-$100 USD MSRP. 

 

I think you're right that parents (in any country) will balk at spending $400 for this set (if its destiny is as a "kids" set). But, if I'm wrong, and this set is a flop, then it should be available at 50% off

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I would compare the Movie sets to Toy story sets. Both are movies for children, both popular, both provided sets primarly for children. Toy story was a flop. I just cannot imagine that in 4 years somebody on ebay will buy an old Movie set. I dont believe it. Maybe somebody will buy the sea cow set, but how much will pay? This set doesnt have exclusive figs, as SW UCS sets has, which will influence the demand and future price. The price can rise, but nobody knows how much. If I have free 250 eur, I would rather buy Orthanc tower or Simpsons. Even if I already have 10 such sets, I would rather buy the 11th Orthanc set than buying the seacow - because Orthanc will rise for sure, but the seacow almost certainly will rise slowly and cannot reach the price of Orthanc, Simpsons, Tower Bridge etc.

To sum up, this set is very risky for investitions.

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The ship is in the movie for over 10 minutes.  The most important part of the move happens on that ship, and you would have a hard time recreating the movie without that ship as a playset, not that everyone buys sets to complete things, but any collector who wants the important Lego sets will have to have this ship.  

 

It's no Millennium Falcon, but I think there is a reason why the two ships shared a lot of screen time.  They have that certain something that makes them iconic.

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The ship is in the movie for over 10 minutes.  The most important part of the move happens on that ship, and you would have a hard time recreating the movie without that ship as a playset, not that everyone buys sets to complete things, but any collector who wants the important Lego sets will have to have this ship.  

 

It's no Millennium Falcon, but I think there is a reason why the two ships shared a lot of screen time.  They have that certain something that makes them iconic.

I'm gonna go watch it again but I sure don't remember it being over 10 minutes.....also which important part of the film happens on the ship? I need to pay more attention.
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