Crustybeaver Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 HD was mentioned in the same breath as FB, GE, SSD, BP, QAR, etc sets of its time. Go back and check out emazers posts from last year. Why not measure its performance based on those sets as well ? You've just given examples of less than 1 percent of the sets Lego release annually. Predicting and investing into the top five to ten best performing sets each year is going to be a tough quest. You're always going to have sets that perform better than others. Selling up earlier than predicted because they don't live up to expectations isn't always a solution that pays off. Last year I sold all my Summer Riding Camps that I bought at 50% for less than retail so I could plough the money into more Campervans (I thought the VW was about to retire) The Riding Camp is now hitting 25% over retail while my VW's sit in boxes waiting for its ever pending retirement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inversion Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 I know I will crush hopes and people will scowl at me for posting this, but all of you guys wanting to justify a set as an investment based on a hypothetical high price it can reach after years are approaching this really wrong. You shouldn't care about how high its price is over RRP, at least in itself. You have to look at the time it takes too. Expected yearly return, that is. If a set is sitting at RRP for years and then begins to grow is a pretty bad investment imho, because the growth has to be insane to set off the years of waiting which is unlikely. I would rather buy some exclusives that jump 30-80% in the first year and sell them off, then repeat. Also selling off sets for a really high price after years of waiting sounds good, but I would rather sell them when their growth slows down and invest in other sets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crustybeaver Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 I know I will crush hopes and people will scowl at me for posting this, but all of you guys wanting to justify a set as an investment based on a hypothetical high price it can reach after years are approaching this really wrong. You shouldn't care about how high its price is over RRP, at least in itself. You have to look at the time it takes too. Expected yearly return, that is. If a set is sitting at RRP for years and then begins to grow is a pretty bad investment imho, because the growth has to be insane to set off the years of waiting which is unlikely. I would rather buy some exclusives that jump 30-80% in the first year and sell them off, then repeat. Also selling off sets for a really high price after years of waiting sounds good, but I would rather sell them when their growth slows down and invest in other sets. Let's get one thing straight. Helms Deep cagr is well in line with the norm. It currently sells for approximately 50% over retail after only being retired a year. Sets that rise by 50-100% shortly after retirement are rare examples and hard to predict. How many here have more than ten TH's? It didn't seem that long ago that doubling your money after two years was a fantastic result, it appears that there are a growing number of people that assume if a set isn't returning TH figures immediately it's a raging failure! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Veegs Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Let's get one thing straight. Helms Deep cagr is well in line with the norm. It currently sells for approximately 50% over retail after only being retired a year. Sets that rise by 50-100% shortly after retirement are rare examples and hard to predict. How many here have more than ten TH's? It didn't seem that long ago that doubling your money after two years was a fantastic result, it appears that there are a growing number of people that assume if a set isn't returning TH figures immediately it's a raging failure! Probably because patience is boooooring and I want my money NOW! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Let's get one thing straight. Helms Deep cagr is well in line with the norm. It currently sells for approximately 50% over retail after only being retired a year. Sets that rise by 50-100% shortly after retirement are rare examples and hard to predict. How many here have more than ten TH's? It didn't seem that long ago that doubling your money after two years was a fantastic result, it appears that there are a growing number of people that assume if a set isn't returning TH figures immediately it's a raging failure! That's not me. I would rather have my money tied up in r2, SSD, TH, red five and some others long term over helms deep. That's all. It was time based on my long term feelings I wanted out of it and to put the cash elsewhere. Nothing more nothing less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inversion Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 (edited) Let's get one thing straight. Helms Deep cagr is well in line with the norm. It currently sells for approximately 50% over retail after only being retired a year. Sets that rise by 50-100% shortly after retirement are rare examples and hard to predict. How many here have more than ten TH's? It didn't seem that long ago that doubling your money after two years was a fantastic result, it appears that there are a growing number of people that assume if a set isn't returning TH figures immediately it's a raging failure! Unfortunately you did not get my point. Several people are using the argument which I declared as entirely flawed in this thread and generally on the whole forum. Did not say anything about HD. Neither did say anything about TH like performance. The 30-80% interval I gave is pretty broad, the TH is already beyond that just in a few months. It is just the logic you use. I don't care where a set ends up in price, I care about growth rate. Edited March 10, 2015 by inversion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legoray01 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 I like the set - I own one. I paid the going price. I needed it to have all the LOTR sets. It was the last one I needed. (I bought it after it was out of retail) I paid $160. I enjoy the hobby. Wish I bought them at $80 - Didn't. Glad I don't have to buy one at $200. Diversify - then your winners can keep you going while your ugly ducklings mature. I have lots of LOTR and Hobbit sets that are maturing and I also have Star Wars, Lego Movie, City, and others. Diversification lowers return but it also lowers risk. Return is the key, I can't risk everything on one theme, but I can spread in across multiple themes and it works. I like Helm's Deep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holleman67 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 I love the set, probably my favorite scene in the movie. I bought 5 at retail when I first started following the herd. Wish I didn't. Could have made more money somewhere else at $130. That's part of my investing experience. Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Brickpicker mobile app Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth_Raichu Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 (edited) You've just given examples of less than 1 percent of the sets Lego release annually. Predicting and investing into the top five to ten best performing sets each year is going to be a tough quest. You're always going to have sets that perform better than others. Selling up earlier than predicted because they don't live up to expectations isn't always a solution that pays off. Last year I sold all my Summer Riding Camps that I bought at 50% for less than retail so I could plough the money into more Campervans (I thought the VW was about to retire) The Riding Camp is now hitting 25% over retail while my VW's sit in boxes waiting for its ever pending retirement. I did not create the list of sets. Check back old threads and see how the more experienced members boasted HD as comparable those other sets in the list to everyone and anyone who wanted to listen. That was the hype that HD failed to live up to I am sorry to say but holleman67 illustrated my point exactly: I love the set, probably my favorite scene in the movie. I bought 5 at retail when I first started following the herd. Wish I didn't. Could have made more money somewhere else at $130. That's part of my investing experience. Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Brickpicker mobile app ETA: I am done with this topic. I said earlier today I was not in the mood for bashing and purposely did not go "all in" with my arguments Edited March 10, 2015 by Darth_Raichu Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exciter1 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 I did not create the list of sets. Check back old threads and see how the more experienced members boasted HD as comparable those other sets in the list to everyone and anyone who wanted to listen. That was the hype that HD failed to live up to I am sorry to say but holleman67 illustrated my point exactly: ETA: I am done with this topic. I said earlier today I was not in the mood for bashing and purposely did not go "all in" with my arguments I did not create the list of sets. Check back old threads and see how the more experienced members boasted HD as comparable those other sets in the list to everyone and anyone who wanted to listen. That was the hype that HD failed to live up to I am sorry to say but holleman67 illustrated my point exactly: ETA: I am done with this topic. I said earlier today I was not in the mood for bashing and purposely did not go "all in" with my arguments Don't leave! We need you!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crustybeaver Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 That's not me. I would rather have my money tied up in r2, SSD, TH, red five and some others long term over helms deep. That's all. It was time based on my long term feelings I wanted out of it and to put the cash elsewhere. Nothing more nothing less. That's all good and well but what if the sets you sell for don't retire for another year or two? It's a gamble I've taken before and had my fingers burnt with. Unfortunately you did not get my point. Several people are using the argument which I declared as entirely flawed in this thread and generally on the whole forum. Did not say anything about HD. Neither did say anything about TH like performance. The 30-80% interval I gave is pretty broad, the TH is already beyond that just in a few months. It is just the logic you use. I don't care where a set ends up in price, I care about growth rate. I understood your point, you would sooner invest your money in sets that display quicker returns such as exclusives. However predicting when they are going to end production can be tricky. How many thought Tower Bridge and Campervan were going last year? I did, or that the Town Hall would go early? I love the set, probably my favorite scene in the movie. I bought 5 at retail when I first started following the herd. Wish I didn't. Could have made more money somewhere else at $130. That's part of my investing experience. Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Brickpicker mobile app Ah hindsight. I often think if only I had invested all my pocket money on buying mint G1 Transformer toys, then I probably wouldn't have felt the need to buy all my Helms Deeps. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaisonline Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 exactly. some people still need to realize most successful historic Lego sets had slower initial annual growth than AA, HH, SSD, etc... i think the massive influx of sellers are the reason some sets like the ones i mentioned had exceptional / massive initial growth (aka "the pop") after becoming unavailable. the sellers who missed out paying retail price jump are the reason for "price pops". from everything i read posted, HD didn't have too many sellers paying over retail for it after retirement. thus, it appears Lego fans are pushing the growth upward which is like the good old days. this set is def a hold in my collection. It's approx one year after EOL. And it regularly trades at 50% above RRP. It's no modular, but it's not a gross bad return. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mudcatsfan Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 (edited) exactly. some people still need to realize most successful historic Lego sets had slower initial annual growth than AA, HH, SSD, etc... i think the massive influx of sellers are the reason some sets like the ones i mentioned had exception initial growth (aka "the pop") after becoming unavailable. the sellers who missed out paying retail price jump are the reason for "price pops". from everything i read posted, HD didn't have too many sellers paying over retail for it after retirement. thus, it appears Lego fans are pushing the growth upward which is like the good old days. this set is def a hold in my collection. The wonder how true the bolded statement above is. I suspect it's dead on. Perhaps these pops are just investors playing musical chairs and trying not to be left standing as the music stops. Anything beyond 6 months POST EOL is where the NEW buyers really enter the market and say, "HEY i never knew they made that, and i need it to survive. Here's 2-3x retail" Some sets will have the pop, some may not. But the real growth and popularity of a set can't be judged until they're gone from ALL retail, ALL over the world. Edited March 10, 2015 by mudcatsfan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exciter1 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 I went over my target allocation on this set, so it doesn't hurt my bottom-line to unload and double-up to re-invest in something else. Selling a few of these will go a long way in converting those $$$ to exclusives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sozial Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 On Ebay.de there are 25 pcs left to pass the 200 Now it passed almost 200 Euro, sometimes some low ballers below 200 Euro, maybe we can see some more growth now since the total amount of offers are declining... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binici Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 This set seems to be slowly rising each quarter...Anyone else this it could potentially reach $300 by the holiday? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njseale Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 I wouldn't bet on it. I am close to dumping mine, I just don't think there is a lot of demand in general for the LOTR line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete411 Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 HUGE LOTR fan here coming out of the dark ages just this year. I really wanted this set and picked up some of the smaller LOTR sets like MoM, Orc Forge, and just had to have Unexpected Gathering. I really wanted to get this set for a while but I've completely lost interest. As a castle, it's half ass and the set is underwhelming. I think it may reach $300 by end of 2016 and just sit right around there like, forever.As a side, I think Unexpected Gathering is the set to have after ToO. Every Hobbit/LOTR fan wants it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ciglione Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Makes me wonder...What makes people here decide to hang on to a set/theme or pull the plug? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth_Raichu Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Makes me wonder...What makes people here decide to hang on to a set/theme or pull the plug?Tea leaves divination... Accuracy depends highly on the quality of the tea though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nolanfan34 Posted June 2, 2015 Author Share Posted June 2, 2015 This is still a great set for the long haul. I think growth will pick up a bit once the license is done and gone frankly. Just look at the craziness with Harry Potter prices now that it is gone. I think Potter is broader appeal and more popular, but still think LOTR/Hobbit will pick up once they are completely gone (if that happens as previously discussed) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Achilles Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Personally, I got most of my HD's for between 60-75, so if I were to sell TODAY, I'd still call this a huge win. I sold my Uruk-Hai Armies this Christmas and did fine, but they are $20 more now than they were just 5 months ago. My basic strategy involves 2 years after SAH availability, and Helms' Deep is November of this year for that mark. I have no doubt these will hit $250, and rising more than that I don't think is out of the question.As far as when to dump. the same kind of applies to me - Alien Motherships are the most recent set I "dumped" (and basically broke even) - This past holiday season. Same deal, they passed 2 years retirement, and really hadn't moved. I gave up. 7962 PodRacers were kind of the same deal, they just didn't move much over the last year I had them, so I moved them (still at a profit) but not as much as I planned when I bought them. Monster Fighers will be hitting 2 years in Nov for the most part too, and I admit I am pretty surprised/disappointed in this sets growth. I felt it would do better than it has, but similarly, if I sold all of my stuff I'd still make some money, just not quite as much as I had planned. We'll see how it goes this holiday season. Obviously, needing the money for other investments is a factor as well. If I really feel money would be better spent elsewhere, I'll make a move. But as part of my general business plan, I'd rather make X amount of percentage on my purchase as opposed to needing to sell after a specific date - but I think that plan really requires more of a devil may care attitude and more cash reserves than I currently have. And there are exceptions, Tie Fighter 9492 had only been gone 8 months by Christmas, but I moved all of mine because I tripled my investment. I figured that was pretty good, and maybe the set will contiue to grow, but I doubt it will grow much more that it made it worth holding on to at that point. I felt the growth of other sets would be better. I assume everyone has their own plan and goals and thresholds. Some people I've noticed dump stuff really fast, others dont mind holding on forever. There's opportunity cost and time cost to factor in to constantly flipping, or holding on to sets. As I've said several times, I think it's most important to simply have a plan and some numbers to prevent yourself from overspending and getting into a tight spot. The worst time to sell (or buy) anything is when you need to. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNH1974 Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 9474 seems to be a bit of a slow burner. It took most of last year to get to just above RRP, £100. It hovered around £110 until near Christmas then shot up to £140 ish. It has not really moved since. The rest of the original LOTR theme is rising slowly, probably because they were so over stocked. 9470, 9472 & 9473 are only now just hitting their (UK) RRPs. Hopefully there will be some rises this Christmas as a lot of the hoarded stock was dumped last year. Having said aid that, the latest BP prices saw my portfolio drop about 10% across the board. Hopefully this is just the mid year slump before the summer holidays and Christmas build up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingleonidas Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 uruk hai army doing way better , still waiting to release the 9474 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxio Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 9474 seems to be a bit of a slow burner. It took most of last year to get to just above RRP, £100. It hovered around £110 until near Christmas then shot up to £140 ish. It has not really moved since. The rest of the original LOTR theme is rising slowly, probably because they were so over stocked. 9470, 9472 & 9473 are only now just hitting their (UK) RRPs. Hopefully there will be some rises this Christmas as a lot of the hoarded stock was dumped last year. Having said aid that, the latest BP prices saw my portfolio drop about 10% across the board. Hopefully this is just the mid year slump before the summer holidays and Christmas build up. Where are you getting your data from?9470 is easily fetching £35-£40 on ebay. RRP was £20 and buy-in was easy for £10 from Tesco. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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