Spanky

Speculate which recently retiring set will be the first to hit 5x RRP?

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We've recently seen an amazing wave of exclusives and high-end sets go out-of-stock and presumably retire.  While we don't yet know for certain which of these sets are truly retired and which may come back into stock after the Christmas rush, I think it would be fun to speculate which of these sets will see the fastest price appreciation to the 5x RRP level.

 

Personally I believe that 10224 Town Hall has the greatest potential to be the first of this pack to reach 5x.  Implied in that statement is that I'm convinced it is retired (other than a few oddball shipments showing up here and there) and won't be coming back.

 

My case for Town Hall is as follows:

  1. The EOL was unexpected. Most thought that that GE would would exit from the stage with a lot of lead time before TH, so having it EOL almost simultaneously with GE left people unprepared. This means that many people who want it for their personal collection likely don't have one.
  2. It is less stockpiled by speculators. Not only due to the suddenness of the EOL, but also due to the $200 RRP.
  3. It is a modular so people wanting to "complete the set" will need to purchase it.

With a RRP of $200 Town Hall will need to reach $1000 to be at the 5x level. Any one want to guess how long it will take?

 

Anyone else care to speculate another recent exclusive that will be first to reach 5x?

 

EDIT: Ok, make the case for non-exclusives also if you prefer. But please explain **why** you think the set has great promise.

Edited by Spanky
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The topic title and the body text ask for two different things:

 

The topic title? Probably Heartlake Pet Salon. - Could reach $150 in 3 years.  Other small sets have possibilities too.

 

Explanation - there are very few pet based sets and friends sets in general have performed well. See Heartlake Vet

Another real possibility will be a $15-20 set with exclusive minifigures or possibly a retiring minecraft set. 

 

Exclusives?  Haunted House. For greatest gross profit, in dollar value, I choose the SSD - $1000 profit easy (at least according to my review of the set), but I don't see it reaching $2000 before the Haunted House reaches $850

 

Explanation - Haunted House is one of a kind. It has immense display quality and great detail, it looks fantastic and isn't limited to a Halloween display like other sets.  Super Star Destroyer is a massive ship and as it has already appreciated 100% in 6 months, it could be the next $2000 set, joining the Taj Mahal, the Statue of Liberty, the Eiffel Tower, the Grand Carousel, and the mothership.  The Cafe Corner and the SSD are probably the only $2000 sets by 2019, if Lego is still appreciating.  Edit to add - never underestimate the power of the new SW trilogy to old sets.

Edited by redghostx
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With a RRP of $200 Town Hall will need to reach $1000 to be at the 5x level. Any one want to guess how long it will take?

I think that it will be 4-5 years before the TH reaches $1,000 of higher. It will be a while before the TH reaches that price, but I believe that it will make it one day.

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Wolverine chopper?  

 

Ah, you did say "exclusive"...

 

The topic title and the body text ask for two different things:

 

The topic title? Probably Heartlake Pet Salon. - Could reach $150 in 3 years.  Other small sets have possibilities too.

 

 

So, I was a little inconsistent, I'd still like to hear the case for why these sets will be *among the first* to reach 5x...

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How recent is "recently"?  And exclusives or all sets?

 

Exclusives I'd have to take a stab at HH as well.

 

For other sets it'll be something like 3187 Butterfly Beauty Shop or 5887 Dino Defense HQ, or something with a retail of $10 that not many people stocked up on.

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Aren't the real returns for modulars 4-6 years later after retirement?

what larger sets have sold for 5x msrp? (I assume taj mahal will be first on list ;-) )

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Research Lab already did it for a few weeks thanks to the New York Times.

It is available in europe, so we can't consider it as "almost retired"  :-)

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Aren't the real returns for modulars 4-6 years later after retirement?

what larger sets have sold for 5x msrp? (I assume taj mahal will be first on list ;-) )

 

 

Here's a few.  Market prices are from back in March.

 

 

bp_1399868760__top_20_mar14_retail.jpg

 

 

First "real" set is probably Market Street.

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The topic title and the body text ask for two different things:

 

The topic title? Probably Heartlake Pet Salon. - Could reach $150 in 3 years.  Other small sets have possibilities too.

 

Explanation - there are very few pet based sets and friends sets in general have performed well. See Heartlake Vet

Does it mean anything (negative, of course) for future growth when there are already over 200 resellers of the pet salon on Amazon?

 

In comparison, there are far fewer resellers of BB Salon (63).

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Aren't the real returns for modulars 4-6 years later after retirement?

what larger sets have sold for 5x msrp? (I assume taj mahal will be first on list ;-) )

I think the real returns on modulars happen anywhere between 5 and 8 years after EOL. I have noticed with a number of exclusives from 2006-2008 that they have had a significant rise in value in the past year. I think that this is happening because there are very few left on the market and that's when the prices rise a lot.

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Yup, the way the market is right now it is getting harder to see sets do 5x within this timeframe due to the supply and demand ratio. I have a funny feeling that ToO could be a candidate if it really is done because it appears not to have been overhoarded and because I don

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I don't think there will be an exclusive which cost more than 180-200 euro/dollar will hit the 5x within a reasonable time. Too much investors nowadays. I think the cheaper sets will, maybe mixels, friends or the first minecraft

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The topic title and the body text ask for two different things:

 

The topic title? Probably Heartlake Pet Salon. - Could reach $150 in 3 years.  Other small sets have possibilities too.

 

Explanation - there are very few pet based sets and friends sets in general have performed well. See Heartlake Vet

Another real possibility will be a $15-20 set with exclusive minifigures or possibly a retiring minecraft set. 

 

Exclusives?  Haunted House. For greatest gross profit, in dollar value, I choose the SSD - $1000 profit easy (at least according to my review of the set), but I don't see it reaching $2000 before the Haunted House reaches $850

 

Explanation - Haunted House is one of a kind. It has immense display quality and great detail, it looks fantastic and isn't limited to a Halloween display like other sets.  Super Star Destroyer is a massive ship and as it has already appreciated 100% in 6 months, it could be the next $2000 set, joining the Taj Mahal, the Statue of Liberty, the Eiffel Tower, the Grand Carousel, and the mothership.  The Cafe Corner and the SSD are probably the only $2000 sets by 2019, if Lego is still appreciating.  Edit to add - never underestimate the power of the new SW trilogy to old sets.

 

That high on pet salon?  Maybe I should grab a few.

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not to start another debate, but I have serious doubts that any "expensive" set will hit 5x RRP after retirement unless they are kept a long time and TLG does not produce a new similar set later on.  I'm not saying there is no money to be made; I'm urging more reasonable expectation on value appreciation.  Here are my reasons:

 

the number of investors have grown a lot.  5 yrs ago, most of the Lego sets were probably bought to be built, with some collectors around keeping them NISB.  So the supply of retired sets was limited. Nowadays (just look at this site), many sets are hoarded and kept for future profits.  The supply of retired sets has grown by who knows how much.  How many NISB Death Star are held out there by investors?  A few thousands?  More than 10,000 sets?  Try unloading that on the secondary market and see what kind of downward pressure there is on price.

 

I can see the Haunted House hit 5x at some point IF TLG does not make another similar set down the line.  I don't see Town Hall being that special, especially if TLG keeps cranking out modular sets for AFOL.  My guess is that most investors wouldn't come close to getting 5x RRP for TH.

 

Just my (perhaps worthless) opinion.

Edited by Dkc

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That high on pet salon?  Maybe I should grab a few.

What I know about Friends is that if you find these sets on sale, you can easily get 100% return on your money, after fees, during the following Christmas season.  The question asks to speculate into the longer future and it is possible that it reaches $150 in a few years but I think it is reasonable to sell this for 80 next Christmas and if you bought in at $25-30, then you are cleaning up.  Previous examples: Vet, Stables, Salons, Air sets, SRC.  Next year, it could be the Hot Air Balloon.

Also, don't sleep on the Jungle Base if it goes on sale, that seems like a 2015 Christmas opportunity to me as well.  It's a well designed set.

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You make a lot of valid points and another is that set prices have also generally gone up more than inflation so it is harder to x5 on a 200 set than a 120.

 

On the other hand, if we continue to have  years of low interest rates, I am sure that several AFOLS will prefer to buy things than leave their money in the bank generating close to 0 interest.

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Good luck hitting x5 anytime soon lol... maybe an odd $5 set will do that, but anything over $100 no, seriously doubt it with today's environment. 

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The LEGO company is the largest toy maker in the world.  There is still a lot of untapped fans not only in the US but around the world who might your stuff in the future.  I have bought current market value for Green Grocer, Market Street, etc.  There will be other adults like me who may want to buy HH, TH, SSD, or even an 6862 etc in the future and have the money to do so when they get hit with the Lego collecting bug! Of course back to the current question, I like limited productions sets like the Mars Rover going for 5X in the future as they were not available at the mass retailers like Walmart, Target, etc

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I too think the Mars Rover will hit 5x which is why I went in head first. TH doesn't qualify as it's only sold out not retired. One fairly recent set that reached 5x (I think) was 4529 Iron Man.

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I believe Marina Bay Sands just did it easily.

But that was a limited edition run and it was only available at Marina Bay Sands.

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