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40222 - Holiday Countdown Calendar


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  • 3 weeks later...
7 minutes ago, Val-E said:

First sales at 22 GBP / 25 euros on Ebay.

Am guessing it will settle in around 15/20 euros once the horde unleashes them. Will be interesting to see how the bus does as it is now selling for only 12.

The bus is doing pretty well in the US. As usual, I sold too early.

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I think the bus will have staying appeal, like GH. The calendar obviouslt has a more seasonal feel so it will probably be better flipped. Dunno about the snow globe. It´s available for 2 weeks here so that should kill the rarity value. Maybe the solider ornament will be the winner.

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Guest TabbyBoy
37 minutes ago, Val-E said:

First sales at 22 GBP / 25 euros on Ebay.

Am guessing it will settle in around 15/20 euros once the horde unleashes them. Will be interesting to see how the bus does as it is now selling for only 12.

That's why I always wait at least a year before selling promo sets are they're rarer by then. I've still not sold my mini Camper Vans or mini Minis yet! If I get the calendar promo, that can also mature until next year. they don't take up a lot of space so why rush?

I feel another Caterham coming on...

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39 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

That's why I always wait at least a year before selling promo sets are they're rarer by then. I've still not sold my mini Camper Vans or mini Minis yet! If I get the calendar promo, that can also mature until next year. they don't take up a lot of space so why rush?

I feel another Caterham coming on...

Right, since Christmas Day is on the 25th, there will always be 24 days leading up to Christmas, and so the 24-in-1 Holiday Countdown Calendar can be sold in October/November 2017, or October/November 2018 ... 2019 ... ;) 

I see them going at Marktplaats for €15 - €17 now. Just like the Gingerbread House set went for last year when loads were offered there at the same time and people were undercutting each other left and right. Now one year later they reach €30. :) 

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2 minutes ago, Haay said:

Right, since Christmas Day is on the 25th, there will always be 24 days leading up to Christmas, and so the 24-in-1 Holiday Countdown Calendar can be sold in October/November 2017, or October/November 2018 ... 2019 ... ;) 

I see them going at Marktplaats for €15 - €17 now. Just like the Gingerbread House set went for last year when loads were offered there at the same time and people were undercutting each other left and right. Now one year later they reach €30. :) 

You’re assuming they’re not going to do the same thing next year, and it isn’t hard to imagine the countdown calendar being repeated. 

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6 minutes ago, Haay said:

Right, since Christmas Day is on the 25th, there will always be 24 days leading up to Christmas, and so the 24-in-1 Holiday Countdown Calendar can be sold in October/November 2017, or October/November 2018 ... 2019 ... ;) 

I see them going at Marktplaats for €15 - €17 now. Just like the Gingerbread House set went for last year when loads were offered there at the same time and people were undercutting each other left and right. Now one year later they reach €30. :) 

And next year there will also be at least 3 new 2017 Advent Calendars available at RRP to give this a very natural price ceiling.  Unless there are some unique pieces/colors I'm missing (or people like that Ideas-style box) that make this a sought collectible, it is not really unique or comparable to the Gingerbread House at all.  Take the money and reinvest in something with growth potential.  I'll be happy to eat my words next year if I'm wrong, but I just don't see this doing much better in future years.  Or at least not enough to be worth keeping.

Edited by Sfcommando14
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10 minutes ago, Sfcommando14 said:

And next year there will also be at least 3 new 2017 Advent Calendars available at RRP to give this a very natural price ceiling.  Unless there are some unique pieces/colors I'm missing (or people like that Ideas-style box) that make this a sought collectible, it is not really unique or comparable to the Gingerbread House at all.  Take the money and reinvest in something with growth potential.  I'll be happy to eat my words next year if I'm wrong, but I just don't see this doing much better in future years.  Or at least not enough to be worth keeping.

Yes, good point about the natural price ceiling when considering the City, Friends and Star Wars advent calendars. Without any unique bricks in this set a €20 max value would be most likely. 

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Latest sales in the US are around $15-$20 including shipping, thanks to lowballers and people putting them up for auction and getting 1 bidder. I'm hoping that next month, when parents are scrambling to buy advent calendars and they start running out at retail, the options are getting one of the three real calendars for $50-$75 from reseller scum, or getting this as a cheaper alternative for $30. I have priced mine accordingly :)

Edited by Phil B
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Guest TabbyBoy
50 minutes ago, feed said:

You’re assuming they’re not going to do the same thing next year, and it isn’t hard to imagine the countdown calendar being repeated. 

My thoughts exactly... I can't figure out why some people flip immediately when there's a very good chance of 2x the year after. Are they really that desperate for a sale of quid that they can't wait and then double it? These people and those that "ask too high a price that it'll never sell in 1,000,000 years" really get up my snout. That's why I think eBay should charge for all listings to get rid of these timewasters and perhaps remove the FVF on postage to compensate. I pay for my listings as a business account but, this is more than offset by the lower FVF ;-)

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11 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

My thoughts exactly... I can't figure out why some people flip immediately when there's a very good chance of 2x the year after. Are they really that desperate for a sale of quid that they can't wait and then double it? These people and those that "ask too high a price that it'll never sell in 1,000,000 years" really get up my snout. That's why I think eBay should charge for all listings to get rid of these timewasters and perhaps remove the FVF on postage to compensate. I pay for my listings as a business account but, this is more than offset by the lower FVF ;-)

I'm pretty sure @feed was noting that TLG might just make another giveaway advent calendar next year, further diluting the advent pool and keeping prices down.

And I don't disagree with your thoughts on keeping promos until they reach scarcity, but I disagree about this one.  At the end of the day, it is an advent calendar with mini-builds aimed at children.  The best case scenario, laid out by @Phil B, is that the other advents go OOS and the ceiling for this rises with them.  Otherwise this is an inferior product to the normal advents, lacks minifigures, and isn't going to move the needle for most AFOLs.  This will keep the prices below whatever the current market price is for the City Advent IMO.  The market can prove me wrong.  I sure didn't guess an $80 ceiling (so far) for the Gingerbread House, but at least that shot up immediately and sat in the $35-50 range (higher FBA) through last Christmas season.  This one is on US Amazon Prime for $17 (with 32 Prime sellers under $20).  We can revisit this discussion next year.  Best of luck to all :)

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