79007 - Battle at the Black Gate

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The sets are still available at retail.

 

They can't go up until they disappear.

 

Why can't people understand this?

 

It makes my head hurt.

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The sets are still available at retail.

 

They can't go up until they disappear.

 

Why can't people understand this?

 

It makes my head hurt.

 

Understanding comes with experience (and research)

Edited by Grynn

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The sets are still available at retail.

 

They can't go up until they disappear.

 

Why can't people understand this?

 

It makes my head hurt.

 

I don't think he was insinuating that the set's performance was not great.

 

Now, it is sold out at shop at home, so if one were interested in buying some of these now would probably be a good time. That being said, he was curious what we thought the set would fetch 12 months from now. He also might not have been aware just how low the buy in was for a lot of folks (which makes his buy in not so great for investment but fine for a personal set or two).

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I don't think he was insinuating that the set's performance was not great.

 

Now, it is sold out at shop at home, so if one were interested in buying some of these now would probably be a good time. That being said, he was curious what we thought the set would fetch 12 months from now. He also might not have been aware just how low the buy in was for a lot of folks (which makes his buy in not so great for investment but fine for a personal set or two).

 

That's fair, i was more reacting to the pervasive opinion that LOTR isn't a good theme because the prices are still so low. 

 

That's not really what you folks were discussing.

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That's fair, i was more reacting to the pervasive opinion that LOTR isn't a good theme because the prices are still so low. 

 

That's not really what you folks were discussing.

 

I do agree with you that more patience is needed for some of these sets. I'm still not all doom and gloom and do think slow and steady gains are forthcoming. These sets were very popular picks with investors but perhaps not so much for kids as a lot of them found their way to clearance aisles quite readily. I think unloading about half my inventory next holiday season and keeping the rest for the following year is my game plan, but it isn't as sexy as quick flipping a HH for $100 profit.

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The entire LOTR/Hobbit theme has been a disappointment for me.
Helms Deep is selling between $130 to $160 ( This is horrible considering msrp is $130 )
Orc Forge is around $40-$60.
 

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The entire LOTR/Hobbit theme has been a disappointment for me.

Helms Deep is selling between $130 to $160 ( This is horrible considering msrp is $130 )

Orc Forge is around $40-$60.

 

 

Many of us got in on HD far below retail. In fact i grabbed 8 of them for $85 at Target in-store towards the end of the run. I wasn't even trying that hard, they were just at every target in my area.

 

Popular licensed themes, at least 1.5 years into the run, at clearance prices = sure thing winners.

 

To keep this on topic for the black gate, i have 7 of them for $29 each from Walmart.

Edited by mudcatsfan

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Many of us got in on HD far below retail. In fact i grabbed 8 of them for $85 at Target in-store towards the end of the run. I wasn't even trying that hard, they were just at every target in my area.

 

Popular licensed themes, at least 1.5 years into the run, at clearance prices = sure thing winners.

 

To keep this on topic for the black gate, i have 7 of them for $29 each from Walmart.

yeah,I hear you.  My average price on the HD were $84.  Even If I sold them for say $150 - fees and shipping cost, I'll make $25

Thats not a good return. 

Got Blackgates for $22 last year at TRU.   Its going to take at least 12 months for it to hit msrp.

Orc Forge was like $24 at Lego stores....they had many sets.

 

Edited by Miami Bomb Squad

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It hasn't proven to be that popular though.

No, I'm talking about the subject matter not the set.

Licenses that have their own rabid fan bases, old enough to have disposable income, create expensive retired sets. OT star wars, OT Indy, Batman, marvel super heroes.

Unpopular ones do not. Prince of Persia, lone ranger, etc.

I think Lotr fits in that first group, but we won't know until the sets truly become difficult to find.

Edited by mudcatsfan

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No, I'm talking about the subject matter not the set.

Licenses that have their own rabid fan bases, old enough to have disposable income, create expensive retired sets. OT star wars, OT Indy, Batman, marvel super heroes.

Unpopular ones do not. Prince of Persia, lone ranger, etc.

I think Lotr fits in that first group, but we won't know until the sets truly become difficult to find.

Star Wars, Batman, Superheroes, etc. move product off the shelves. LotR hasn't. If the primary market is weak, why would the secondary be strong? It's folly to think that people will pass on the piles of clearance Black Gates now but pay triple digits for them in anything resembling the near future.

 

I can see why people thought LotR was a strong license, I did too. But it is proving to be somewhat mediocre and I can't help but think that people who still feel otherwise are simply in denial. I'm sure there's some nominal amount of money to be made here -- there is in most Lego these days -- but LotR is proving to be a poor investment, relative to other themes that were/are available alongside it.

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Star Wars, Batman, Superheroes, etc. move product off the shelves. LotR hasn't. If the primary market is weak, why would the secondary be strong? It's folly to think that people will pass on the piles of clearance Black Gates now but pay triple digits for them in anything resembling the near future.

 

I can see why people thought LotR was a strong license, I did too. But it is proving to be somewhat mediocre and I can't help but think that people who still feel otherwise are simply in denial. I'm sure there's some nominal amount of money to be made here -- there is in most Lego these days -- but LotR is proving to be a poor investment, relative to other themes that were/are available alongside it.

I am about the biggest LoTR fan there is.  That theme is actually what got me into Legos again.  I think a number of the sets and minifigs are outstanding.  That being said, I agree that it isn't a great investment theme, but neither do I think it is a bad choice either if you're willing to look long-term.  I think that the fact that the theme ran shorter than most people were thinking it would means that there won't be a massive amount of sets available 4-5 years from now.  And Lord of the Rings is timeless.  So unless Lego comes back to the theme, new Lego investors who arrive on the scene years from now will be like, "Whaoah, Lego made Lord of the Rings sets?!?!?  Awesome!  I gotta get me some!"  (Note the high English I used there in honor of Lord of the Rings).  Anyway, I think the theme mostly failed with younger kids.  They don't know who Frodo is.  But adult collectors, with deeper pockets, will care years from now.  I can almost guarantee that my Tower of Orthanc set will be going for a pretty dollar years down the road.  I'm actually hoping to get another one soon, if they become available again. 

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I have a feeling the current four sets supporting the 3rd hobbit movie are a paradox.  

 

They do not look like a good buy at MSRP.

 

But I also have a feeling that they will not be on the shelves nearly as long as previous sets.  Just my opinion but I believe the license for the last movie will expire quickly and after Christmas these sets will be gone from most retailers and will not restock.

 

On sales I am already getting all these sets somewhere between 30 and 40% off.   The piece count per set doesn't seem to support the MSRP.  At a discount I feel like I am getting

 

I just have a feeling they are going to become a lot harder to find and that Lego is not going to produce nearly as many of these sets as they produced for the movies earlier in the series.  The market got flooded with some of the sets supporting the second movie and I don't think retailers are buying in as they did before. 

 

Having said all that - I would love to see Black Gates at a steep discount.  They never went down that far around here (S.E. Michigan) 

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I have to say that I agree with what everyone has said in the last 10 or so posts, both for and against the LOTR theme.

 

The LOTR theme has disappointed investment-wise so far, but it's too early to define it a failure IMO.  Bricketycricket is right to question whether the steep discounts on a number of sets  because of a lack of sales currently will lead to poor secondary sales in the future.  The current Lego buyers that are into LOTR have likely purchased their sets and won't be buyers in the future given no new sets on the horizon.

 

However, from my own point of view, I'm also a collector who just got back into Legos.  My primary interest is Star Wars, but have also started buying LOTR sets after watching the movies again recently.  So, I've purchased the available sets from retailers currently available (or that were available) to add to my collection.  I've also started looking at ebay and other places to get the first-wave sets I've missed out on, such as Helms Deep, Orc Forge, etc...  I missed them at their big discounts on clearance, but it doesn't make me less interested in them, especially if I can get them just above MSRP currently on good deals.

 

If the entire theme is gone after the last Hobbit line, then secondary markets have a chance to take advantage of the people like me who missed out when the sets were available and that want them when they get into the hobby over the next few years.  Few people currently buying, other than investors, know that Black Gate was available for $18, $22, or $29 on clearance over the past year if they are just starting to buy into the theme over the next year when Black Gate is gone, or mostly gone, from retailers.  I picked up two from Target recently for $41.99, which is a 30% discount off the $59.99 MSRP, and thought wasn't a bad deal until I heard of the earlier clearance prices.

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This is a great thread. I hope mos avoid these. That will mean less supply in the future. Collectibles are supply and demand in the future, not now. I remember piles of black pearl on clearance at walmart and I strolled on by. Must have been a bad seller. To each his own. The lotr theme is stronger by a large margin than hobbit. I will stack the smaug set on clearance and discount. If i can find them cheap enough on clearance i will stack the witchking sets to throw in as freebies in the future. It looks like supply will be lower. In fact.i have decided to go thirty deep on TOO for this very reason.

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This is a great thread. I hope mos avoid these. That will mean less supply in the future. Collectibles are supply and demand in the future, not now. I remember piles of black pearl on clearance at walmart and I strolled on by. Must have been a bad seller. To each his own. The lotr theme is stronger by a large margin than hobbit. I will stack the smaug set on clearance and discount. If i can find them cheap enough on clearance i will stack the witchking sets to throw in as freebies in the future. It looks like supply will be lower. In fact.i have decided to go thirty deep on TOO for this very reason.

 

Exactly - if you read the DD thread religiously you'll find that somewhere at some time during the life span of a Lego set or theme, that someone is able to stack coupons or talk to the manager or use witchcraft to get insane discounts. I think the LOTR sets were (obviously?) not that popular with kids and B&M stores had a lot of stock, so they needed to be clearanced. Adults and collectors are the target market, and I actually think AFOL-friendly sets make some of the best investments. Plus you can usually get them cheap.

 

People were hating on the KJ and I checked the sold listings today and some folks that got them 20% off + promo or double VIP should be able to make money.

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LotR sets aren't really AFOL friendly though. Aside from a few, each set is just a handful of minifigs and a wall or tree to pose them with. They are play sets for the most part.

Edited by bricketycricket

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LotR sets aren't really AFOL friendly though. Aside from a few, each set is just a handful of minifigs and a wall or tree to pose them with. They are play sets for the most part.

I would completely disagree with that, considering the Lord of the Rings theme is completely AFOL friendly.  The Hobbit, less-so, except for Unexpected Gathering which has crossover appeal.

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