JRandall Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 (edited) Anytime the forums get slow and people start to talk about sets and build some hype everyone will start buying those sets until it's out of stock, purchase metrics prove it. Happened with HH, GE, and recently a near ice cold TH, it will happen with the Tower Orthanc also. There will be buyers of this set for a long time coming, but there won't be nearly as many overall as there are for the modulars and others lines. This set is like Helms Deep, it will continue to grow slowly for a long time because they won't make it again, but it all depends upon if you want to hold it that long. Edited October 22, 2014 by JRandall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I agree people should stop buying TH when it shows up again. More for me to buy. Hehe :) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I did not think ToO was retiring so I only bought 2 while I am stocking up on others. Perhaps I should hedge bets and get a few in case. Think odds low but hey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waddamon Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Sooo it begins. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No More Monkeys Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Anytime the forums get slow and people start to talk about sets and build some hype everyone will start buying those sets until it's out of stock, purchase metrics prove it. Happened with HH, GE, and recently a near ice cold TH, it will happen with the Tower Orthanc also. There will be buyers of this set for a long time coming, but there won't be nearly as many overall as there are for the modulars and others lines. This set is like Helms Deep, it will continue to grow slowly for a long time because they won't make it again, but it all depends upon if you want to hold it that long. We should do a run on Architecture Studio... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Join the herd. Moo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cross Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Thanks to a fellow BP'er, who is surely to read this, I am very bullish on ToO. Math time. Licensed X Outstanding build X Never to be reproduced X A top literary work of all-time= $. I appreciate those who think this set is "fair" as an investment, as it only strengthens the case for those that see its true potential. Tolkien's work was produced during the 40's. It will never be remade; it will never be matched; an entire literary genre was spurned from it. If you enjoy Game of Thrones, Robert Jordan, R.A. Salvatore, or any other author of the fantasy genre, thank Tolkien for lighting the fire. This is an epic, iconic, once-in-an-investor's-lifetime set, and will always, always, always have an interested audience. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legopocalypse Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I'm very bullish on the set as well but if you want investors to ignore it and not stockpile it, the last thing I would do is post how great it is. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pickleboy Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 So do we still get double VIP if it doesn't ship or charge our cards until next month? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmpirate Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Tolkien's work was produced during the 40's. It will never be remade; it will never be matched; an entire literary genre was spurned from it. If you enjoy Game of Thrones, Robert Jordan, R.A. Salvatore, or any other author of the fantasy genre, thank Tolkien for lighting the fire. and don't forget Terry Brooks and his Shannara series! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legone Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 You can still order it from Lego, Amazon and Target, and the set is less than 18 months old. We don't know for sure, but I think people are overreacting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cross Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I'm very bullish on the set as well but if you want investors to ignore it and not stockpile it, the last thing I would do is post how great it is. I could not disagree with you more. The spirit of this board- and this forum- is to share perspectives and advice. People can do with it as they please. From what I have learned from this forum, or any of us, it's deserved. I would rather see ToO in the inventory of fellow BP'ers than anyone else. I will reiterate my case for fellow BP'ers to be the ones owning what remains, now and in the near future, of ToO... Mixels are fun, and can be very profitable with proper market timing. Same with the Harry Potter sets; though flattening now returns were very positive. Seventy weeks, vs. seventy months, vs. seventy years of fan base. For the long-term investor, this set is only going one direction. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Young_Gun21 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 It will grow; it's the Tower of Orthanc come on. It's obvious that less stockpile = quicker larger profits but at the same time sets that are said to be over stockpiled still make nice growth. A good seed will grow but more sunlight and the right amount of water will make it grow faster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mscheaf Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cross Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Another thought on this set... The build is beautiful; the box sucks. Lego should have used whatever box R2 is in for ToO; for every R2 box at a Lego store that had folds or creases, there are five ToO's that are damaged. I am halfway through my acquisition goal so I can cherry-pick mint boxes; I do not know their condition for on-line orders, but based on the ratio of dinged boxes I have seen in stores, I have to assume it will be rough going on good boxes once this set is in the woods. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legone Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 (edited) I'm guessing the Tower of Orthanc is not selling very well. Reasons: - LOTR fans are still young, they can't afford a $200 toy yet - Most current AFOLs already passed the age when the LOTR movies were released If this is correct, then ToO will likely ripe 3 to 4 years from now when the LOTR generation mature into their mid-late 20s, early 30s, assuming the set's been retired by then (very likely). Edited October 22, 2014 by legone 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waddamon Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I agree, folks should stock up on others and come back to this one in 2018. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadowsk1 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I would guess Lego has stopped production on this set. Since there is no longer a lord of the rings line being produced because it wasn't popular enough there is no reason to continue producing this set. I imagine they are going to sell off whatever they stock they have left and call it a day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miami Bomb Squad Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I must be the only contrarian on this set. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ciglione Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I agree... When you look at the Monster Fighters Theme. The 10228 HH retired about a year after the theme. So I guess we can expect the same on this one. One day it is gone in 60 seconds. I have a few LOTR sets with one of these and I like it as a set. It is marvelous. Just I do not like Lord of the Rings itself (movies, books, theme). Never had the patience to watch the movies cause to me they are boring. So I keep the few sets I have and when I get fedd up with them I will sell them without regrets. Profit or not. It is just not my cup of tea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waddamon Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I agree... When you look at the Monster Fighters Theme. The 10228 HH retired about a year after the theme. So I guess we can expect the same on this one. One day it is gone in 60 seconds. I have a few LOTR sets with one of these and I like it as a set. It is marvelous. Just I do not like Lord of the Rings itself (movies, books, theme). Never had the patience to watch the movies cause to me they are boring. So I keep the few sets I have and when I get fedd up with them I will sell them without regrets. Profit or not. It is just not my cup of tea. Only comment I would make to this, is that investing is not buying. You should invest in what you perceive people will want in the future based on the available marketplace and who is in it. If you like the movies or not should not sway you either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xeeeej Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I'm guessing the Tower of Orthanc is not selling very well. Reasons: - LOTR fans are still young, they can't afford a $200 toy yet - Most current AFOLs already passed the age when the LOTR movies were released If this is correct, then ToO will likely ripe 3 to 4 years from now when the LOTR generation mature into their mid-late 20s, early 30s, assuming the set's been retired by then (very likely). LOTR fans are young? LOTR came out 70 years ago, so I would argue that most fans are of the AFOL variety. I would guess the main reason ToO isn't selling as well as it could is that the reason of the LEGO LOTR lineup isn't that strong. I'm guessing there would be more ToO sold if the completionist faction was on board with the whole LOTR theme. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waddamon Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 LOTR fans are young? LOTR came out 70 years ago, so I would argue that most fans are of the AFOL variety. I would guess the main reason ToO isn't selling as well as it could is that the reason of the LEGO LOTR lineup isn't that strong. I'm guessing there would be more ToO sold if the completionist faction was on board with the whole LOTR theme. No one actually knows whether or not this is selling well. It has always been a limit two on lego.com since the beginning. Selling volumes are utter speculation due to the simple fact that lego is not a public company and does not disclose that information. If they every IPO I will be the first in line after my 90 day restriction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Veegs Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I would guess Lego has stopped production on this set. Since there is no longer a lord of the rings line being produced because it wasn't popular enough there is no reason to continue producing this set. I imagine they are going to sell off whatever they stock they have left and call it a day. Although we don't know for sure, it would be fairly likely that to assume the LOTR license has expired or expires at the end of 2014. It seems doubtful TLG would pay for the license and not release another wave of LOTR sets (this also assumes the Hobbit license is separate) in the spring/summer as past years. That is a huge telling point. We do know licenses are probably expensive and not acquired lightly, so to not release another wave is an indicator that perhaps all LOTR stock was produced that will ever be produced, possibly including ToO. It is also possible that the license expires this year, and that the backorder indicates a final run of ToO before the license expires. I'd expect TLG to make a fair amount though, to keep this set available for awhile. I doubt they will keep the LOTR license in 2015 if ToO is the only set they produce, though, so as long as there aren't more LOTR waves (no rumors that I know of) the Tower can't be produced forever. Better to get one or two now (One in double VIP, on on Black Friday), stay below the banhammer and hedge your bets. Probably not time to wipe out stock from other retailers where you won't get double VIP or bonus sets to sell. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meowsmeowsmeows Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The expected ship date from Lego shop at home is now Jan 31, 2015. Can that be right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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