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LEGO Investing: Are Lego Elves Sets Worth the Investment?

LEGO Elves is a line of LEGO that is intriguing with its fairies, dragons, goblins, and TV show, yet it is targeted at girls with a seemingly limited appeal. However, there have been sets that have been extremely good investments mixed with others that haven't. Brook Johnson helps sort through the dust.

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The one thing we all tell the newbies is to read the forums, look at how old sets have performed, and form your own opinions.  It is the answer given to everyone who pops in and asks "what do I buy".  So if that is the position, what was the purpose of this video?  You just told people what to buy.

Just put up a paywall and be done with it.  You won't make money on YouTube at this point, and you're just telling people what to buy now.  You'd make more money keeping the sets you like to yourself and just buying them (or with a paywall). 

The first videos that helped newbies were good, general concepts that must be considered and many people don't know.  Is this the start of a line by line examination into what sets should be invested in?  Because if so, please hurry and let me know what not to buy before I accumulate too many of the sets you highlight.

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17 minutes ago, Sfcommando14 said:

The one thing we all tell the newbies is to read the forums, look at how old sets have performed, and form your own opinions.  It is the answer given to everyone who pops in and asks "what do I buy".  So if that is the position, what was the purpose of this video?  You just told people what to buy.

Just put up a paywall and be done with it.  You won't make money on YouTube at this point, and you're just telling people what to buy now.  You'd make more money keeping the sets you like to yourself and just buying them (or with a paywall). 

The first videos that helped newbies were good, general concepts that must be considered and many people don't know.  Is this the start of a line by line examination into what sets should be invested in?  Because if so, please hurry and let me know what not to buy before I accumulate too many of the sets you highlight.

Do you agree with my assessment of the current wave?  You think I went too far at the end giving a suggestion?  Maybe.  Like I said in my video, I think these things and then don't realize I didn't follow through.  Now my money is where my mouth is.  I can't image this video will get more than 10,000 views before the dragons retire.  I honestly don't think a few suggestions will influence that many people or affect the retirement price.  Most people don't watch through the end anyway.  The key these days is more the buy-in price than the right sets.  How many people bought their Healing Hideouts at a good price to still make money if it is a dud?  The interesting part is that I could so easily be wrong.

I just do this for fun.  A little money on the side is fine.  I big chunk goes into the Brickpicker general fund.  I expect to be the warm up act to get an audience for the Macks when they make a video entrance.

Thanks for watching.  Any show ideas?  I am planning on running through the winter sets.  They are pretty much duds now anyway, but fun and timely.  I could stick to stirring up controversy too, but it is good to mix it up.  I was going to do the Women of NASA set, but that might a little to hot to handle.

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Honestly, giving away the experience we've earned and our informational advantage isn't something I think should be shared in the videos.  Especially not specific sets.  I also have a full time job and only make a little money on the side to fund my addiction <cough> collection, so it doesn't affect me as much as others.  I think the intro series is great and can probably be expanded upon by looking into the past and generally how it applies to the future.  Let people form their own opinions.   Maybe more in-depth on shipping costs (USPS vs UPS/FedEx), tricks to save on shipping, best ways to package sets etc.  But honestly, I'm in favor of a pay wall to support BP and the serious community.  Plus we get to learn which lurkers are using the free information we provide (and make them pay for it).

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A few ideas that shouldn't taint the aftermarket we cherish here: 

Collectible minifigures
Convention exclusives
Haunted sets sampled from all themes - Halloween 2018
The over saturation of Super Hero sets
Star Wars remakes
Missing sets from popular themes
Licenses that were duds
Modular buildings and how they've improved
Where LEGO missed the boat
Themes that overstayed their welcome
Flooding the market
LEGO combats resellers and how it hurts their bottom line
Why LEGO will no longer be a collectible
 

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27 minutes ago, Sfcommando14 said:

Honestly, giving away the experience we've earned and our informational advantage isn't something I think should be shared in the videos.  Especially not specific sets.  I also have a full time job and only make a little money on the side to fund my addiction <cough> collection, so it doesn't affect me as much as others.  I think the intro series is great and can probably be expanded upon by looking into the past and generally how it applies to the future.  Let people form their own opinions.   Maybe more in-depth on shipping costs (USPS vs UPS/FedEx), tricks to save on shipping, best ways to package sets etc.  But honestly, I'm in favor of a pay wall to support BP and the serious community.  Plus we get to learn which lurkers are using the free information we provide (and make them pay for it).

I know the Macks have resisted making a pay section.  I can see both sides.  I think anyone serious would pay $100 a year no problem, but then the unpaid side becomes a wasteland.

A lot people have asked for packing and shipping.  So that will do a few shows on that.  I haven't weighed my sets in awhile since I moved to FBA, but I still have my inventory of boxes.

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I'm curious about number of sellers and sales volume when you analyze these themes and selling strategies.  It might look good only because you're one of a handful taking the risk on that theme.  If everyone was diversified and selling Elves its performance might be awful.  That spa secret 41074 has 27 current sellers on eBay.  Great!  Except, when you click on 'Sold Listings" I get 12 results dating back to late August with gaps of 5-10 days between sales.  Plus, the lowest BIN price for it is now $40 and not the $50 in your video, which may go to show as more people jump into selling the weak themes they got on discount, the harder it is to make a profit from them because the demand was never that high to begin with.  Makes me understand why some people on here are so secretive about the sets that they are hoarding.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, belljohn said:

Do you agree with my assessment of the current wave?  You think I went too far at the end giving a suggestion?  Maybe.  Like I said in my video, I think these things and then don't realize I didn't follow through.  Now my money is where my mouth is.  I can't image this video will get more than 10,000 views before the dragons retire.  I honestly don't think a few suggestions will influence that many people or affect the retirement price.  Most people don't watch through the end anyway.  The key these days is more the buy-in price than the right sets.  How many people bought their Healing Hideouts at a good price to still make money if it is a dud?  The interesting part is that I could so easily be wrong.

I just do this for fun.  A little money on the side is fine.  I big chunk goes into the Brickpicker general fund.  I expect to be the warm up act to get an audience for the Macks when they make a video entrance.

Thanks for watching.  Any show ideas?  I am planning on running through the winter sets.  They are pretty much duds now anyway, but fun and timely.  I could stick to stirring up controversy too, but it is good to mix it up.  I was going to do the Women of NASA set, but that might a little to hot to handle.

I personally think that you are doing a terrific job. Your videos are cool to watch - so please keep on going..  Ive been quite wondering.. everytime that I see you on a video pulling / dragging a box across the table.. you are not worried about its wear ? :)

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2 hours ago, crayxlp said:

I personally think that you are doing a terrific job. Your videos are cool to watch - so please keep on going..  Ive been quite wondering.. everytime that I see you on a video pulling / dragging a box across the table.. you are not worried about its wear ? :)

I normally get the take done in 1 or 2 tries, so the box doesn't wear that badly.  Most stuff I show I will never sell anyway because they are from my library. I think sets labeled "normal shelf wear" are easier the sell anyway.  Thanks for watching.

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2 hours ago, hockeyweasel said:

I'm curious about number of sellers and sales volume when you analyze these themes and selling strategies.  It might look good only because you're one of a handful taking the risk on that theme.  If everyone was diversified and selling Elves its performance might be awful.  That spa secret 41074 has 27 current sellers on eBay.  Great!  Except, when you click on 'Sold Listings" I get 12 results dating back to late August with gaps of 5-10 days between sales.  Plus, the lowest BIN price for it is now $40 and not the $50 in your video, which may go to show as more people jump into selling the weak themes they got on discount, the harder it is to make a profit from them because the demand was never that high to begin with.  Makes me understand why some people on here are so secretive about the sets that they are hoarding.

 

 

 

The long term graph data is from the Brickpicker data set of all sold eBay listings for each month.  I don't know the sales volume since that is not part the info I get from the site.  I normally trust it unless I see unexpected swings.  I have given feedback a couple of times and the the data was adjusted after finding errors.  For the Amazon data I use the Buy it Box price.  If the set's sales rank in toys is 150,000 or less, then it is selling for that price.  For current eBay price I look at the lowest BIN and check to see if any have sold at that price.

The data might be a little old.  I recorded 2 weeks ago.  Even the Amazon price has dropped.   I don't sell on eBay anymore, but on Amazon I often sell in October and January and mostly skip November/December.  Most of the sets I sold this October were the same price as I sold last April.  I should have sold a lot more in the spring and not held it hoping for higher prices.  The last 2 years, prices have gone down as Christmas gets closer for 90% of sets I follow.  Planet Fun alone has 49 Spa Secret sets in FBA.  I wonder if they will hold their price there with the new holiday storage fees.

I try to be as accurate as possible, but prices can change quickly.

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I love the videos but agree with @Sfcommando14 that you shouldn't be advertising sets/themes that are still current. Personally, I would love to see a series on themes that have already retired (or waves of themes that have already retired) and analyze their performance over time. Maybe take something that has been retired for a year, versus something that has been retired for 2 years, 3 years etc. Provide background information but leave people guessing as to what the real drivers are.

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